Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbaf6c00d1702c189522a2025f8d52d01348978b16dfe5bd51d5d2f5d6712b0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 60c | 3,422$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.37 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 23c | 3,120$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.25 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 26c | 1,927$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.8 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,905$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.4 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Yes | 76c | 981.66$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed Yes | 75c | 750$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 60c | 697$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.61 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 50c | 693.58$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.56 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 61c | 545.34$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.57 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 74c | 535.19$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.02 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 63c | 513.34$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.91 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 37c | 505.07$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 70c | 449$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.97 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c7…9574backed No | 62c | 399$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 70c | 382.55$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 58c | 377.2$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.85 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 317.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.68 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 45c | 282.31$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 16c | 280$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 26c | 230.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b958backed No | 56c | 199.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 69c | 184.42$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f5…0125backed No | 57c | 183$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 76c | 180$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 36c | 136$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 33c | 131$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…0029backed Yes | 72c | 130.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 129.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 66c | 121.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 25c | 113.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…fecdbacked No | 31c | 113.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…8646backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 61c | 97.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…d4eebacked No | 65c | 96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e4…becfbacked Yes | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa787…a9d1backed Yes | 58c | 88.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 31c | 82.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…5144backed No | 67c | 81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…e1e8backed No | 26c | 80.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…0344backed Yes | 56c | 71.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…0a8abacked Yes | 53c | 56.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…b70bbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +167.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 55c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 49.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 29c | 48.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 52c | 44.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…7182backed No | 62c | 34.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…116dbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…ec2bbacked Yes | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…9746backed No | 63c | 17.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.