Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe2e088bb35b2d506faf75173426bef579552ccb97c6ea6a1afde6105827aee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 56c | 1,862$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.98 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 42c | 1,390$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.44 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,353$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 39c | 716.29$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.92 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 61c | 660.1$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.59 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 62c | 620$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.9 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 29c | 503.24$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 419.54$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.04 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 53c | 404.02$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 62c | 402$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 64c | 352.04$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 18c | 324.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 30c | 315.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 46c | 289.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…fecdbacked No | 21c | 264.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 215.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 212.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 48c | 193.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…2c52backed No | 63c | 176$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 36c | 146.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked Yes | 74c | 137$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 44c | 123$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 71c | 117.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 11c | 102.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 27c | 88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 73c | 88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed Yes | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 44c | 74.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked No | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…edfbbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…766abacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…5de0backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 65c | 41.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…0a8abacked Yes | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 59c | 30.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b76…cf72backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…fd92backed Yes | 55c | 24.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…f4c3backed No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…4c43backed No | 59c | 22.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…8defbacked No | 58c | 17.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…f6e4backed Yes | 63c | 16.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…32c0backed Yes | 79c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf6…7f29backed Yes | 79c | 13.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…91b6backed Yes | 79c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.