TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2edb…9ac5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
159
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Commodities, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 53 out of 100; worst Stocks at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT6036.7%22 W · 38 L-8.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Stocks — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google dip to $280 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$127
Will Tesla reach $405 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Apple reach $264 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8.33
Will NVIDIA reach $184 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.96
Will Google reach $320 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Google reach $310 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$16.97
Will Tesla dip to $338 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$28.35
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$30.97
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Apple reach $300 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+170.3%+$34.05
Will Microsoft dip to $390 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of February 16 above $415?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of February 16 above $410?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+40.9%+$40.87
Will Meta dip to $640 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+39.4%+$39.42
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$142 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+29.6%+$29.6
Will Amazon reach $256 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Amazon dip to $224 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will Amazon dip to $216 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$39
Will Amazon dip to $204 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5448.1%26 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$243
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$25
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Solana dip to $50 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$143.9
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+100%+$200
Will Solana dip to $70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$117.46
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$333.33
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$89.86
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$125
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.09
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Solana dip to $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$67.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$257.58
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$103.03
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-54.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$204.23
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$13.27
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+36.4%+$72.71
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$46.27
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Will Fogo launch a token by December 31 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32%+$48.05
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+43.7%+$87.33
Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$29
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobollibacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaiderbacked Aryna Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.