TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$622,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$466,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $622,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 672 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a26…1851backed Yes37c25,238$9,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,313.164440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes16c13,360$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.71306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x903f…e556backed Yes5c12,912$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.91020%2 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes5c12,614$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.911520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes2c11,366$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.231926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x594c…3399backed Yes29c10,909$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,140.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+714.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x731d…32c9backed Yes18c10,450$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.9660%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ecb…514cbacked Yes37c10,414$3,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,845.340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c9,424$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1182934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes36c8,891$3,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No68c8,351$5,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2720…2765backed Yes35c8,100$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c7,779$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.891,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes27c6,119$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.534134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8854…5882backed Yes18c5,939$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+397.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x388a…e87cbacked Yes21c5,900$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed Yes33c5,599$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.92437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes23c5,571$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.8908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes12c5,092$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.283528.6%10 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes6c5,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.82520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c5…b315backed Yes9c4,515$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes16c4,343$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd7…ce30backed No65c4,300$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes16c4,269$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.151154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes6c4,212$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.52714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+100.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c4,076$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3427…6c08backed No65c3,800$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98c4…d1d0backed Yes37c3,555$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x684f…c3a7backed No80c3,438$2,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes13c3,402$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.99312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No70c3,298$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.130238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes23c3,215$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No77c3,171$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.023661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes10c3,037$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.296041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked Yes33c2,998$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.26944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b6…7a3abacked Yes22c2,917$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…c001backed Yes10c2,884$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes11c2,866$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.31931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes31c2,860$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.77757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3439…2985backed Yes11c2,834$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b3…e59fbacked Yes9c2,815$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c68…7fbfbacked Yes3c2,713$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39f0…ef06backed Yes26c2,612$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-61.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd6…b5edbacked No58c2,586$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No68c2,584$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.11977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf299…58c7backed Yes24c2,547$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes10c2,434$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.51425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes28c2,386$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.722924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes31c2,273$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.5480%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xace2…8ab9backed Yes6c2,177$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes3c2,170$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f65…1679backed Yes26c2,103$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes37c2,034$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes20c2,017$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.34818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes9c2,008$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed No58c2,001$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.2729747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x681d…4bb8backed Yes21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…592cbacked Yes2c1,879$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc548…e66cbacked Yes2c1,856$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.09110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes15c1,850$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.74520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes26c1,802$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8616…3496backed Yes18c1,789$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.94633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ced…c09cbacked Yes31c1,777$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x399b…0b28backed Yes17c1,776$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.01425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198c…f1a6backed Yes1c1,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes9c1,600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+65.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74f0…ec1fbacked Yes31c1,595$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8fb…cd0bbacked No74c1,590$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes7c1,588$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.32714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+99.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…1d25backed Yes13c1,584$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes32c1,551$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.92714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes7c1,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.04296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac2…c0b4backed Yes6c1,483$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes19c1,443$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.683312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2814…68dbbacked Yes10c1,432$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a9a…6924backed Yes29c1,394$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.02520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d06…334dbacked Yes36c1,390$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc43…abf5backed No74c1,363$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.45540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes6c1,362$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.13714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd6…e41dbacked Yes19c1,361$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes7c1,330$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.43714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+97.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No66c1,328$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4503565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes7c1,321$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.68616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+133.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25b3…2763backed Yes29c1,303$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.17728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+96.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x506d…6654backed Yes32c1,296$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fda…147ebacked Yes16c1,291$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+84.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c7…5510backed Yes34c1,290$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes49c1,267$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.4410967%73 W · 36 L+12.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8bee…588abacked Yes22c1,259$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+140.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5633…6c51backed Yes32c1,250$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8650…b3f7backed Yes6c1,238$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.45714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+103.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ce…be8cbacked No60c1,222$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.09540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+148%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes13c1,207$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes10c1,201$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.912010%2 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes27c1,198$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+871.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes6c1,181$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6611615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Yes31c1,162$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes40c1,105$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Yes32c1,100$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+525%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa488…4a49backed Yes34c1,091$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.