TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$427,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$246,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,472 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c20,014$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes7c16,910$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c15,398$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.691,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes0c14,590$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e4…c001backed Yes1c14,580$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes1c13,197$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes0c5,222$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.17684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb4…af47backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes14c5,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes0c4,809$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.221520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c5…a85cbacked Yes0c4,343$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes10c4,248$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes11c4,140$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.8922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed Yes1c4,104$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59c4…b517backed Yes5c4,044$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c4,039$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.121306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes14c3,834$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.883312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,807$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.462324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes8c3,791$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.4908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes13c3,605$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.314134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes12c3,407$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.12725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Yes14c3,281$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.091010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-72%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes1c3,189$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d43…743bbacked Yes3c3,136$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf584…803cbacked Yes1c2,943$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da1…6324backed Yes2c2,505$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c0…1ce7backed Yes2c2,468$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes12c2,280$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.984520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Yes12c2,135$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c2…498ebacked Yes2c2,025$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104528.9%13 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+121.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes15c1,985$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes12c1,829$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.452924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c1,785$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.36128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes1c1,750$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked Yes13c1,735$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77a0…8f62backed Yes3c1,670$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,667$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.699312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeada…58d1backed Yes6c1,654$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x609f…c5a8backed Yes1c1,653$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ae…9e39backed Yes2c1,634$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes9c1,573$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.814122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes1c1,529$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.673013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c1,512$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.65147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,492$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.62765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcebf…9e38backed Yes10c1,437$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+148.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae9…7473backed Yes35c1,419$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes1c1,408$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.691926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes17c1,289$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2a…69d8backed Yes1c1,284$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes2c1,271$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.812744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c1,237$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.54137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fcb…b2bcbacked Yes24c1,174$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+448%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes13c1,168$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.622425%6 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa30a…4992backed Yes13c1,156$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa446…754ebacked Yes16c1,102$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.483225%8 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes16c1,026$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Yes2c1,001$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes15c1,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.462832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6db5…497dbacked Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes16c1,000$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes6c988.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.661010%1 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes12c944.3$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c7b…b427backed Yes2c901.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes12c888$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.222941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf05…2a23backed Yes2c879$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a0b…c8acbacked Yes2c878$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+509.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9e3…93f2backed Yes13c877.23$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.83728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes11c874.68$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9611615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa08b…77b0backed Yes3c869.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.86190%0 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes2c840.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d2…75f2backed Yes12c836$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a0…2ab3backed Yes2c810.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e24…ed17backed Yes14c792.25$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf80…9163backed Yes3c758.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af5…9d16backed Yes17c751.95$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e1e…bb8cbacked Yes2c745.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa81a…1d85backed Yes13c727.03$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes11c720.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.31714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes2c720$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.46812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92c1…0586backed Yes15c676.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb0c…58c5backed Yes11c659$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes8c649.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Yes12c614$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.944067.5%27 W · 13 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5cf9…0dc6backed Yes2c600$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes12c593$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.273036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes4c570$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa905…fd4fbacked Yes18c518.36$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+102.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb26…0dc7backed Yes14c518.18$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+130.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9262…39c9backed Yes12c500$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4919…067ebacked No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a32…8635backed Yes10c500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062a…51e4backed Yes21c483.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes15c464.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.851866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes15c452.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.231442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f5…a3b1backed Yes23c439.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes13c410$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…333ebacked Yes14c400.49$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82c…620abacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaf2…1d7ebacked Yes13c399.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.