Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8357a153488be5b1201ef92978f17fe6ea20374cef60d654142a7f5ebaac17c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $427,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,014$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 7c | 16,910$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 15,398$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.69 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 0c | 14,590$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…c001backed Yes | 1c | 14,580$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 1c | 13,197$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 0c | 5,222$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb4…af47backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,809$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c5…a85cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,343$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes | 10c | 4,248$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,140$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Yes | 1c | 4,104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…b517backed Yes | 5c | 4,044$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,039$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,834$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.88 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,807$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 3,791$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 13c | 3,605$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.31 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 12c | 3,407$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.1 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,281$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 1c | 3,189$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…743bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,136$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…803cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,943$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…6324backed Yes | 2c | 2,505$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c0…1ce7backed Yes | 2c | 2,468$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 12c | 2,280$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.98 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Yes | 12c | 2,135$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…498ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,025$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,985$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 12c | 1,829$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.45 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,785$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…959abacked Yes | 13c | 1,735$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…8f62backed Yes | 3c | 1,670$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,667$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…58d1backed Yes | 6c | 1,654$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…c5a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,653$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9e39backed Yes | 2c | 1,634$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 9c | 1,573$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,529$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,512$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,492$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed Yes | 10c | 1,437$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae9…7473backed Yes | 35c | 1,419$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 1c | 1,408$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes | 17c | 1,289$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,284$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,271$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 1,237$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcb…b2bcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,174$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +448%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 13c | 1,168$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30a…4992backed Yes | 13c | 1,156$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,102$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 16c | 1,026$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…54c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6db5…497dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 6c | 988.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 12c | 944.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…b427backed Yes | 2c | 901.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes | 12c | 888$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed Yes | 2c | 879$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…c8acbacked Yes | 2c | 878$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e3…93f2backed Yes | 13c | 877.23$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 874.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 3c | 869.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 2c | 840.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…75f2backed Yes | 12c | 836$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a0…2ab3backed Yes | 2c | 810.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e24…ed17backed Yes | 14c | 792.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…9163backed Yes | 3c | 758.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…9d16backed Yes | 17c | 751.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…bb8cbacked Yes | 2c | 745.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…1d85backed Yes | 13c | 727.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes | 11c | 720.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 720$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…0586backed Yes | 15c | 676.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0c…58c5backed Yes | 11c | 659$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 8c | 649.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 12c | 614$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf9…0dc6backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 12c | 593$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 4c | 570$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fd4fbacked Yes | 18c | 518.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…0dc7backed Yes | 14c | 518.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9262…39c9backed Yes | 12c | 500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…067ebacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a32…8635backed Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062a…51e4backed Yes | 21c | 483.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 15c | 464.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 15c | 452.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…a3b1backed Yes | 23c | 439.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 13c | 410$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 14c | 400.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…1d7ebacked Yes | 13c | 399.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4900 and $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.