TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$420,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f55…71c9backed Yes1c27,317$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc548…e66cbacked Yes1c14,069$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.72110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x903f…e556backed Yes4c11,293$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.81020%2 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c10,748$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.21812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c8…f144backed Yes5c10,398$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.04120%0 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe614…2d37backed Yes0c10,070$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb13…a774backed Yes13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes1c9,557$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.29684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bd…5f2cbacked Yes0c9,508$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes4c8,420$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.112015%3 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c8,375$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.571010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c8,172$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.22934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes1c8,033$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,478$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.251,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes8c6,922$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.25229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c6,257$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.711306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d3…31ccbacked Yes6c6,181$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,242$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.872324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes3c4,195$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa793…7de7backed Yes1c3,901$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c3,785$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de7…b4a8backed Yes1c3,706$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7612…4a43backed Yes1c3,670$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes2c3,249$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c3,229$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes6c3,049$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.65714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+100.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes1c2,753$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,522$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes24c2,425$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.521428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes11c2,330$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.14122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c2,268$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes1c2,262$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2a…69d8backed Yes1c2,227$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes1c2,200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba2…3045backed Yes6c2,181$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf584…803cbacked Yes1c2,134$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes1c2,068$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-92.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…c54abacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c1,927$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes2c1,829$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…6c5bbacked Yes18c1,642$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c1,635$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c1,588$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes5c1,557$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6321011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes4c1,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.22245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x158f…4c3fbacked Yes4c1,474$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes15c1,350$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8715556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b48…3b37backed Yes8c1,339$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a0…060cbacked Yes15c1,330$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…7c24backed Yes1c1,321$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e5…1da2backed Yes1c1,318$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes4c1,245$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.13714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+97.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef1…2581backed Yes1c1,236$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e72…5b71backed Yes1c1,184$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8650…b3f7backed Yes5c1,150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.62714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+103.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fd…4ae8backed Yes2c1,090$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes1c1,075$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5629747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa0f5…94f7backed Yes9c1,010$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes3c1,010$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de7…183cbacked No78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes8c999.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855223.1%12 W · 40 L-10.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe6d2…9c2fbacked Yes1c953.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.03825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes4c877.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba3…e6acbacked No76c866.32$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8521…96ddbacked Yes3c837.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8726…797cbacked Yes4c800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef29…2388backed Yes1c757.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes3c755.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes5c714.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.25714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes6c666.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.82714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+99.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes3c598.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…5fddbacked Yes25c520$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb84…e3d1backed Yes7c507.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1302445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes4c499.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+92.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes5c489.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.58616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+133.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb26…0dc7backed Yes5c471.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+130.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes14c438.27$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.362227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4834…0c43backed Yes7c425.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-76.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c8…04d9backed Yes5c419.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05fd…50c9backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904d…58e4backed Yes17c382.81$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.43933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes15c350.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.147921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes4c326.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.771450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276b…e119backed Yes7c326.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.09616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+147.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef67…2a33backed Yes20c320$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e1…cd94backed Yes5c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0396…2039backed Yes4c286$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf07…4b64backed Yes4c281.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82c…620abacked Yes14c277.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0db2…f18abacked Yes21c270$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes16c240.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No72c236.5$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.222846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca6…48aabacked Yes17c233.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes25c203.02$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c8…da0ebacked No78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a5…0fd2backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.