TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$464,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $464,775 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73c4…ba3bbacked Yes11c32,739$3,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,516.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes3c16,546$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.95684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes16c16,208$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,657.1630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes27c12,876$3,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,526.314440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x903f…e556backed Yes3c10,815$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.081020%2 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c10,430$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.071,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x731d…32c9backed Yes9c10,207$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes10c9,368$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.211306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3716…238cbacked Yes2c8,854$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.9290%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes5c6,498$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.73714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+100.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes3c6,149$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No73c6,017$4,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.733661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes4c5,714$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.74296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes10c5,160$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.21908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73b9…47c4backed Yes2c4,978$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.583016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes4c4,935$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.38616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes11c4,653$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.431926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c4,600$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Yes12c4,259$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c4,031$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.899312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes1c4,003$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.861216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b6…7a3abacked Yes17c3,995$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes5c3,639$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.07714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+99.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ba…23cebacked Yes12c3,411$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc548…e66cbacked Yes2c3,328$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.99110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c3,104$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.022934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc8…227ebacked Yes10c2,978$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed Yes8c2,925$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2452437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f0…ef06backed Yes5c2,923$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-61.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes7c2,915$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.364122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes12c2,851$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.692138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b3…e59fbacked Yes7c2,674$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17560%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes1c2,614$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.096041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes12c2,460$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.66540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes15c2,251$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.8229747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes5c2,205$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.37714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes16c2,200$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.371631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes32c2,162$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.271020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c2,114$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4930718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes5c2,042$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+133.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x422e…d5cebacked Yes15c1,957$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes2c1,877$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.17425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes9c1,830$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c1,824$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.15765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes5c1,788$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.05714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+97.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e00…2fe0backed Yes13c1,674$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c1,562$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.25147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,555$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.552324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c1,540$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea0…bf6dbacked Yes33c1,500$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe860…c3d2backed Yes11c1,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa7…c202backed Yes17c1,499$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes1c1,443$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6580%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes2c1,420$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.67752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes4c1,419$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.664818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c1,414$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.86137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8650…b3f7backed Yes5c1,407$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.54714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+103.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20b…2773backed Yes5c1,376$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes3c1,300$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes5c1,258$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes9c1,217$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c1,215$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4280%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes5c1,213$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…08e8backed Yes2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa793…7de7backed Yes2c1,184$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6f38backed Yes11c1,168$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…3fefbacked Yes12c1,159$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.69812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid+68.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb055…c5e7backed Yes2c1,118$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes2c1,111$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes5c1,085$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57fb…1336backed Yes2c1,051$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x418a…01aebacked Yes14c1,046$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad10…448ebacked Yes19c1,040$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.461145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…c54abacked Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…6631backed Yes4c993.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82bb…68dcbacked Yes3c974.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac13…6506backed Yes21c960.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003815.8%6 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-54.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdeec…a303backed Yes6c947.5$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.241811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-78.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66a3…422abacked Yes5c924.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.41425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes3c923.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.34812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5db…d774backed Yes6c914.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba1…25d8backed Yes2c906.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.36425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+124.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed Yes5c859.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904d…58e4backed Yes3c851.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa446…754ebacked Yes5c836.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.893225%8 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7612…4a43backed Yes4c830.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3570%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a74…9043backed Yes2c766.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+495.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes8c761.81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.465135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae19…11aebacked Yes5c752.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e3…a274backed Yes6c745.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c97…fd1dbacked Yes9c743.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes13c720.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.51156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick34cpaid-89.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6d3f…bb60backed Yes12c707$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f3…d536backed Yes14c701.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd03…a537backed Yes13c701$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes3c698.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.983517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c1…c755backed Yes15c661.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…f7d8backed Yes26c653.61$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ee…7483backed Yes26c634.14$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.