TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$476,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$291,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d18…4972backed Yes1c24,600$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes6c18,527$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes2c16,500$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.53684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes1c12,921$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.624528.9%13 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+121.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c12,337$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.361306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c9,970$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.281,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c7b…b427backed Yes1c9,675$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e4…c001backed Yes2c9,402$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c8,331$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.982934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Yes1c7,494$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.82425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+254.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes17c7,217$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.53922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes1c7,057$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.411520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a94…b59fbacked Yes9c6,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c5,990$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.46908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc548…e66cbacked Yes0c5,941$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes19c5,220$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.374520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes1c5,141$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes11c5,000$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes20c4,822$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.484134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes1c4,588$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.883013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes1c4,304$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c4,293$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.949312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c4,178$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.812324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes2c3,906$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.86616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf584…803cbacked Yes2c3,283$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes11c3,163$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.77728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes15c3,129$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.882924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeabd…8115backed Yes1c3,084$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes2c2,747$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c0…1ce7backed Yes3c2,673$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.01616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59c4…b517backed Yes13c2,613$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes6c2,543$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes17c2,531$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.36728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked Yes23c2,422$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8186…c801backed Yes19c2,323$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d43…743bbacked Yes4c2,296$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed Yes4c2,249$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c2,230$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.47765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1dd…5625backed Yes2c2,205$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+180.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Yes1c2,066$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes1c2,064$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.632321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes20c2,051$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.053312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xde9a…6064backed Yes0c2,021$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes4c2,000$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9d…8961backed Yes1c1,972$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes1c1,866$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+68.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f4…0fc7backed Yes16c1,858$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes1c1,837$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c1,812$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b3…e59fbacked Yes6c1,575$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc002…77abbacked Yes2c1,573$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…b715backed Yes19c1,555$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a44…6db6backed Yes7c1,545$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d67…4d3ebacked Yes4c1,544$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick6cpaid+89.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes2c1,514$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd973…d933backed Yes2c1,484$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+459.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c1,372$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e3…93f2backed Yes10c1,323$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.78728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes10c1,317$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.314122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes18c1,310$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.632425%6 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c1,250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.28137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2814…68dbbacked Yes16c1,246$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes15c1,214$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.31010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9b…0f36backed Yes4c1,209$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef7…9da3backed Yes10c1,207$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes22c1,200$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.622832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46cd…3b66backed Yes1c1,168$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+406.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x609f…c5a8backed Yes4c1,131$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4573…af6cbacked Yes4c1,117$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…6412backed Yes23c1,110$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.13425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes3c1,008$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.43540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+130.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8591…43f6backed Yes24c1,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab45…c4f5backed Yes6c1,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3aff…e200backed Yes21c960.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ae…9e39backed Yes8c927.13$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2708…bd47backed Yes2c921.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes16c859.98$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.284818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes4c844$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.381931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a0…2ab3backed Yes3c838.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes19c817.47$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3439…2985backed Yes12c808.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes3c807.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.381926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e24…ed17backed Yes14c789.23$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes6c763.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.421010%1 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e50…e702backed Yes8c756.49$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ac…be5abacked Yes6c740.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…0abdbacked Yes11c722.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes11c720.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.31714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ba…2b97backed Yes9c706$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes22c700$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.913036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba28…b272backed Yes2c699.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+63.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes20c698.94$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.391723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes14c697.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa25d…7353backed Yes2c678.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+342.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes14c670$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.822941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Yes17c659.96$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…69d8backed Yes2c643.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6b7…8999backed Yes16c637.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002040%8 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ed…0231backed Yes6c622.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.