Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close between $4900 and $5000 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x731adde7dc551500c4d0a085af37f3f9a9374676ca7a4669dda3f7363a3f6cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $399,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $292,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x903f…e556backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…c715backed Yes | 2c | 17,872$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a4…31e9backed Yes | 2c | 17,779$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…4293backed Yes | 1c | 13,585$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…0266backed Yes | 2c | 12,842$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 0c | 10,410$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 1c | 10,141$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…7de7backed Yes | 1c | 7,059$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 7,040$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…f144backed Yes | 1c | 6,724$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 6,346$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…e66cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,327$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…58d1backed Yes | 2c | 6,186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes | 1c | 5,564$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,545$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 5c | 5,364$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…803cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,369$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…4a43backed Yes | 1c | 4,070$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 1c | 3,864$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,854$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,552$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 1c | 3,512$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,682$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,668$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 0c | 2,464$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…08a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,431$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,414$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,334$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 2,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 2c | 2,140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 5c | 2,120$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 5c | 1,824$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,816$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 4c | 1,689$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 4c | 1,447$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,419$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd8…dfdcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,313$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 1,249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…5eb7backed Yes | 4c | 1,123$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ef…f76ebacked Yes | 3c | 983.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d2…9c2fbacked Yes | 3c | 966.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…3b66backed Yes | 1c | 909.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +406.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 3c | 899.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…5b71backed Yes | 2c | 859.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 4c | 851.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…4ae8backed Yes | 2c | 739.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…96ddbacked Yes | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…58e4backed Yes | 2c | 556.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 4c | 541.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 2c | 539.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 4c | 533.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 10c | 484.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 9c | 438.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 5c | 434.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…e119backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…8c29backed Yes | 9c | 225.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close between $4900 and $5000 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.