Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc5b1618b122a6acd45daa139f153e8fb54b71e38ca943bb01f6203f8b13427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $656,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $602,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $656,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 629 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 40c | 30,605$12,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,362.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 6c | 12,128$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,459.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…ed18backed No | 26c | 10,800$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…e87cbacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,924.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Yes | 69c | 9,577$6,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 12c | 9,395$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,310.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 20cpaid | +514.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…5882backed Yes | 7c | 9,355$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,727.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +397.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes | 5c | 7,880$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,474.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +871.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…e556backed Yes | 7c | 7,844$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,322.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 50c | 6,971$3,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…26b5backed No | 16c | 5,897$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 79c | 5,590$4,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,388.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 12c | 5,447$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,776.71 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 5,376$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,886.76 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 5,202$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,521.13 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,620 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed Yes | 29c | 4,757$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,373.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…78d5backed No | 63c | 4,687$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 10c | 4,570$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,103.78 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 24c | 4,230$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,197.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,760 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,994$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,781.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 74c | 3,890$2,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…131bbacked Yes | 75c | 3,850$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…ed6abacked Yes | 74c | 3,800$2,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed Yes | 44c | 3,700$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,630$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,307.38 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 7c | 3,220$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,991 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e253backed Yes | 74c | 3,150$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 9c | 3,117$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.75 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 70c | 3,100$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.77 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed Yes | 8c | 2,827$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.83 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 2,776$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.76 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,749$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,366.44 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…498ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,529$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…7a3abacked Yes | 23c | 2,474$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…2985backed Yes | 12c | 2,408$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 20c | 2,362$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 10c | 2,343$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +398.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 47c | 2,317$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.84 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…c001backed No | 26c | 2,309$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…bd59backed Yes | 30c | 2,269$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,192$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 79c | 2,128$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.08 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,033$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.18 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,030$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 43c | 2,000$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.89 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +885.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…0001backed No | 22c | 1,897$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…5fa0backed Yes | 23c | 1,844$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…147ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,841$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 14c | 1,813$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.23 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed Yes | 53c | 1,725$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.51 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…803cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,678$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,655$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.17 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes | 16c | 1,630$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…68e3backed Yes | 36c | 1,628$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 20c | 1,516$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 61c | 1,500$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862b…e9b9backed No | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…ffb2backed Yes | 43c | 1,500$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 18c | 1,473$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…bd47backed Yes | 20c | 1,440$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 27c | 1,438$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…0b28backed Yes | 21c | 1,418$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 78c | 1,390$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 4c | 1,339$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,267$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +752.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…6c51backed Yes | 43c | 1,250$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…0abdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,223$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 15c | 1,199$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd062…7929backed Yes | 33c | 1,162$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…2c78backed Yes | 68c | 1,133$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Yes | 28c | 1,128$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 9c | 1,122$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.93 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed Yes | 32c | 1,117$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…c8acbacked Yes | 8c | 1,107$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc5…08dbbacked Yes | 34c | 1,091$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,088$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.88 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…3399backed Yes | 6c | 1,080$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +714.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…0fc0backed No | 7c | 1,078$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 67c | 1,055$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…c5a8backed Yes | 18c | 1,042$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 1,034$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.24 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,026$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.85 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 77c | 1,017$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.22 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…ce5fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,012$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,347.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c50…73b8backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Yes | 20c | 991.42$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe8…0925backed Yes | 5c | 976.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +551.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…7d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 971.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +239.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed Yes | 12c | 967.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 68c | 955.36$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee1…2f39backed Yes | 75c | 950.25$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…3286backed Yes | 69c | 950$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked Yes | 31c | 949.51$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.56 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6f38backed No | 42c | 947.35$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close between $4900 and $5000 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.