TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$656,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$602,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $656,378 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 629 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a26…1851backed Yes40c30,605$12,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,362.54440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes6c12,128$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,459.91926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e4…ed18backed No26c10,800$2,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,767.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x388a…e87cbacked Yes11c10,000$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,924.971118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Yes69c9,577$6,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.483100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes12c9,395$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,310.78475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick20cpaid+514.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8854…5882backed Yes7c9,355$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,727.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+397.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes5c7,880$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,474.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+871.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x903f…e556backed Yes7c7,844$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,322.081020%2 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked Yes50c6,971$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.56944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9787…26b5backed No16c5,897$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No79c5,590$4,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,388.85966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes12c5,447$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,776.71908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes9c5,376$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,886.761306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c5,202$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,521.131,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Yes8c5,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,620520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes29c4,757$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,373.48650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f00…78d5backed No63c4,687$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes10c4,570$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,103.784134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes24c4,230$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,197.33714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes6c4,000$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,760540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes5c3,994$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,781.511520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes74c3,890$2,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…131bbacked Yes75c3,850$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9619…ed6abacked Yes74c3,800$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506d…6654backed Yes44c3,700$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes9c3,630$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.389312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes7c3,220$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,991714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+100.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf69…e253backed Yes74c3,150$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes9c3,117$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.754122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No70c3,100$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.774520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba50…9f97backed Yes8c2,827$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.831811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid+15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c2,776$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.7630718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes14c2,749$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.444818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c2…498ebacked Yes47c2,529$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b6…7a3abacked Yes23c2,474$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3439…2985backed Yes12c2,408$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.23714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes20c2,362$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.371931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…ac08backed Yes10c2,343$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+398.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed No47c2,317$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.8429747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x48e4…c001backed No26c2,309$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b5…bd59backed Yes30c2,269$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes18c2,192$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.55728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes79c2,128$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.083030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes42c2,033$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.182070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes11c2,030$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.59616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes43c2,000$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.892740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked Yes3c2,000$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+885.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…0001backed No22c1,897$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bab…5fa0backed Yes23c1,844$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+105.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fda…147ebacked Yes18c1,841$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+84.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes14c1,813$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.232934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes53c1,725$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.5110967%73 W · 36 L+12.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf584…803cbacked Yes6c1,678$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.14911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,655$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.172324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes16c1,630$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.31010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed Yes36c1,628$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.552437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes20c1,516$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+68.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes61c1,500$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.421154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes9c1,500$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3621931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x862b…e9b9backed No7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2767…ffb2backed Yes43c1,500$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes17c1,500$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.49425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes18c1,473$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.02425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2708…bd47backed Yes20c1,440$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes27c1,438$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x399b…0b28backed Yes21c1,418$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No78c1,390$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.81977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No4c1,339$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.081241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+78.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes12c1,267$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+752.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5633…6c51backed Yes43c1,250$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e3…0abdbacked Yes25c1,223$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.84450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes15c1,199$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.681020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd062…7929backed Yes33c1,162$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.271338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc1d…2c78backed Yes68c1,133$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8e…1ef0backed Yes28c1,128$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4f…6232backed Yes9c1,122$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.932528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73be…9a59backed Yes32c1,117$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.94333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a0b…c8acbacked Yes8c1,107$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+509.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc5…08dbbacked Yes34c1,091$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+124.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,088$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.88765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x594c…3399backed Yes6c1,080$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+714.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f18…0fc0backed No7c1,078$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No67c1,055$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x609f…c5a8backed Yes18c1,042$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.45520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c1,034$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.243565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes9c1,026$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.8530238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No77c1,017$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.223661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29f1…ce5fbacked Yes7c1,012$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,347.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c50…73b8backed Yes44c1,000$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Yes20c991.42$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe8…0925backed Yes5c976.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+551.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8835…7d7ebacked Yes10c971.06$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+239.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcebf…9e38backed Yes12c967.28$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+148.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes68c955.36$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.36580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee1…2f39backed Yes75c950.25$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d26…3286backed Yes69c950$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa446…754ebacked Yes31c949.51$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.563225%8 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6f38backed No42c947.35$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.