TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$354,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,859 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6636…bf37backed Yes6c29,741$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.581926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes1c16,901$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.82684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes3c15,361$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x903f…e556backed Yes3c12,224$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.431020%2 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc548…e66cbacked Yes1c10,631$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.09110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c9,993$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.421306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c8,807$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.841,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c4…ba3bbacked Yes6c8,145$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x731d…32c9backed Yes3c7,444$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8760%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf584…803cbacked Yes2c7,365$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.29911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73b9…47c4backed Yes2c6,713$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.353016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes2c6,475$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.55296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes2c5,426$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c5,212$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.22934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c4,213$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.319312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92b…f682backed Yes2c4,070$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c3,886$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.85908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c3,750$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.282324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes2c3,441$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.85616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb001…816abacked Yes6c3,200$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c3,192$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.76765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes9c3,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes7c2,958$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-92.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed Yes4c2,490$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c2,476$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.68128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c2,456$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.33147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122b…743cbacked Yes5c2,222$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c2,164$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.94137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes7c2,143$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.871020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes2c1,984$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.82119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d2…9c2fbacked Yes3c1,881$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.74825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeada…58d1backed Yes5c1,838$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes3c1,748$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes1c1,645$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.814818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed Yes2c1,613$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes1c1,521$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a7…5049backed Yes1c1,519$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f3…d536backed Yes7c1,501$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes3c1,484$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.44812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes1c1,431$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2429747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa08b…77b0backed Yes1c1,309$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31190%0 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28c8…f144backed Yes8c1,308$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c1,279$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes1c1,261$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c1,250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.634122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…c755backed Yes9c1,158$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes1c1,111$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes2c1,101$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92e…f9eebacked Yes5c1,092$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…fd1dbacked Yes7c1,054$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa793…7de7backed Yes3c1,045$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c1,018$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce0…e809backed Yes3c943.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.85633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2900…5479backed Yes5c936.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-72.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e3…a274backed Yes3c875.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x106e…8f8ebacked Yes2c839.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d65…beb4backed Yes3c820.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-70.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc33…633ebacked Yes3c811.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3316…bbaebacked Yes6c804.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd60a…5a90backed Yes3c800.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…5eb7backed Yes5c774.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes6c748.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.48664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb7…1429backed Yes4c735.01$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7612…4a43backed Yes3c727.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes2c725.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.04156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick34cpaid-89.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe827…0082backed Yes4c722.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-73.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes2c715.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7372…e4c6backed Yes2c704.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes6c699.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.671631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba36…cea3backed Yes4c662.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6f38backed Yes4c650.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb055…c5e7backed Yes2c648.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…3fefbacked Yes3c627.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid+68.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd415…cf14backed Yes8c555.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…f7d8backed Yes8c531.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…e502backed Yes4c523.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2324…2b86backed Yes6c520.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe860…c3d2backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9008…f3cebacked Yes3c485.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-77%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82c…620abacked Yes9c444.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes2c414.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe83…db76backed Yes4c410.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb195…6f85backed Yes12c403.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d4…662cbacked Yes5c400.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…92a9backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6c…5711backed Yes3c399.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aff…7b63backed Yes8c397.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba1c…452fbacked Yes8c394.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c359.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x807e…0b72backed Yes7c342.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x923e…ab45backed Yes8c329.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd027…ef27backed Yes5c329.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1760%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b9…7b8dbacked Yes3c322.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5e…4046backed Yes6c309.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4404…767dbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3f2…ee96backed Yes6c288.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeaa…efebbacked Yes8c264.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…e115backed Yes6c230.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1877…8b78backed Yes8c177.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.