TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x106e…8f8e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+110.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$145.48
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$200.92
Will Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+319.3%+$319.27
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+334.8%+$66.96
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+177.4%+$196.43
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+872.9%+$375.36
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$186.06
Bucks vs. Warriorsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Heat vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$87
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+900%+$90
Warriors vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Kings vs. Lakersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Pistons vs. Clippersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinebacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Warriors vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+163.2%+$83.21
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-37.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Howard Bison vs. Northwestern Wildcatsbacked Howard Bison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Wyoming Cowboys vs. Air Force Falconsbacked Air Force Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Omaha Mavericks vs. Oregon Ducksbacked Omaha Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 3 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+190%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5)backed LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+190%+$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$48.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Krakenbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$16.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. 49ersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.