TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Pistons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,283,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,486,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,283,951 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,508 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat36c309,322$112,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196,526.4687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Pistons65c151,157$98,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,421.537941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Pistons63c85,046$53,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,579.2613248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pistons3c83,414$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.711,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Pistons64c50,000$32,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,00048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pistons64c49,535$31,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,709.142,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Heat64c49,034$31,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,685.1516846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat58c39,549$22,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,710.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pistons16c38,886$6,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,364.941,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Pistons63c37,500$23,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,774.9221951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Pistons64c30,035$19,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,322.4315841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat36c27,665$9,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,705.521,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Heat36c25,015$9,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,009.5819048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Heat36c25,000$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,099.9720551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Heat34c25,000$8,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,559.9316339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Pistons24c24,860$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons64c22,271$14,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,217.42,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Pistons64c20,000$12,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,899.945253.8%28 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Pistons40c18,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2007439.2%29 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Heat35c16,924$5,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,000.8940350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons35c16,313$5,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,728.914,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pistons49c15,231$7,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,515.282,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Heat34c15,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,90023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pistons15c13,957$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,113.61,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Pistons34c13,292$4,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,481.0613339.1%52 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pistons1c13,208$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.228820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat67c12,063$8,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,966.758,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Pistons65c12,045$7,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,77776746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Pistons3c11,334$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Pistons11c11,251$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.8718440.8%75 W · 109 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pistons56c11,198$6,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,272.776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Pistons64c10,997$7,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,012.878445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heat52c10,698$5,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,085.4548845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Pistons65c10,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,499.919150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Heat36c9,998$3,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,398.7119751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Heat35c8,279$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,371.1721538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Pistons65c8,018$5,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,183.9931347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x685e…6f30backed Pistons45c7,847$3,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,531.0510757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat43c7,745$3,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,412.8683039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c3…bac5backed Pistons34c7,745$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,613.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pistons34c7,652$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.661,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Heat34c7,510$2,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,956.614945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Pistons66c7,001$4,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,620.6613148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Pistons63c7,000$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,41012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Heat52c6,944$3,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.472839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2db…4149backed Pistons66c6,700$4,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,421.941442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pistons65c6,628$4,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,308.22,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8692…f1bcbacked Pistons66c6,400$4,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2241233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Heat52c6,400$3,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,091.2712143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Pistons0c6,298$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.411,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pistons1c6,217$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.171,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Heat62c6,189$3,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.1313260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x017f…52e3backed Pistons66c6,100$4,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0261040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Heat35c6,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.9946928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Pistons45c6,000$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.9944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Heat34c5,797$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,813.7930947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec1…28bdbacked Pistons12c5,793$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.063636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…7b27backed Pistons65c5,791$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Pistons14c5,787$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.522646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf95b…8400backed Heat35c5,776$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,754.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b9…5e62backed Pistons5c5,610$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3643…7f8ebacked Pistons66c5,600$3,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.961040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pistons64c5,539$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.911,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Pistons63c5,500$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,46514243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Heat37c5,500$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,464.9815247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Heat37c5,405$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.4148938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat55c5,365$2,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,393.533,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…b7a6backed Heat34c5,100$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,366966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Heat60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Heat36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.9718045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Heat35c4,800$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,140.991,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb802…5bbebacked Pistons67c4,478$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pistons37c4,461$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.312,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Pistons21c4,326$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.311,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Pistons16c4,315$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Pistons64c4,305$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75517436.2%63 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0621…13d1backed Heat34c4,300$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8381136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pistons25c4,299$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.42,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Heat60c4,114$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.41,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Heat37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a44…a73ebacked Heat34c4,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6401435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Heat35c4,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.9818142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf334…8d9dbacked Pistons57c3,737$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.88475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Heat38c3,652$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.5624634.6%85 W · 161 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3513…3579backed Heat35c3,600$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.981921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pistons4c3,508$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.61,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Pistons43c3,502$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.8126659%157 W · 109 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Heat36c3,434$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.7547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Pistons40c3,429$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.5412843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pistons30c3,347$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.363,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Heat36c3,331$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.5619560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat36c3,327$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.091,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d86fbacked Pistons32c3,314$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.651844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0054…b663backed Pistons5c3,289$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.481631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Heat37c3,223$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.5514254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Pistons13c3,178$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40150838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d20…a976backed Pistons25c3,137$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78814248.6%69 W · 73 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Pistons40c3,125$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25039051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Pistons64c3,125$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00022449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.