NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e2dea4f4a9dc466fb6fd86a36bff429f13cdd4780028f7a48e5de091e62c5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Heat | 54c | 1,871$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.67 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 48c | 848.66$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.65 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons | 46c | 667.63$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.52 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Pistons | 68c | 360.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.47 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Pistons | 51c | 282.78$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.22 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Heat | 49c | 176.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Heat | 51c | 127.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Heat | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Pistons | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Heat | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Pistons | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…eaf6backed Heat | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…a253backed Pistons | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat | 59c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2f…6645backed Pistons | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x163f…ab55backed Heat | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Heat | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Heat vs. PistonsHeat won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.