NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0326b0473cb14ac979782b7ea6943c4d0413135fc77e87077728c2dab0cc4a30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 53c | 4,167$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.62 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 2,795$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 53c | 1,153$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 5c | 1,033$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 713.62$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 3c | 616.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 28c | 300.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 59c | 234.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 221.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 185$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 39c | 170.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under | 61c | 170.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 48c | 156.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 41c | 124.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Under | 54c | 103.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Under | 59c | 102.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 340 | 50.3%171 W · 169 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…480bbacked Over | 41c | 56.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 53c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…a398backed Under | 75c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 240.5this page
- Heat vs. PistonsHeat won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.