NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c539564a4ca90d07e37ab73b56866d49f9abb79d68bce8eb0672c4ace153c87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 11,303$5,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,742.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 6,365$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,143.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 51c | 1,618$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.65 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 51c | 1,422$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.57 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 11c | 815.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 51c | 450$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 66c | 427$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 59c | 412.3$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 385$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 50c | 250.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 240$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Over | 55c | 240$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 8c | 214.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 154.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…4720backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 34c | 105.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a00abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…1f6bbacked Over | 51c | 67.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…7566backed Over | 48c | 62.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 62.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 54.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…5163backed Over | 64c | 51.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Over | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 52c | 29.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 51c | 22.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5this page
- Heat vs. PistonsHeat won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.