NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x977ff97a20e112fc3c015346bac6973857e8e2672d691671cd982ddba239e66e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,408 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0352…3292backed Under	51c	11,705$6,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,681.26	101	58.4%59 W · 42 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	4,439$2,137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,136.82	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	51c	3,096$1,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,517.08	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	20c	2,113$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.32	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Under	54c	1,500$810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	51c	1,082$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.82	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	48c	808$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.84	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under	78c	638.03$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.03	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	48c	579$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.92	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	46c	515.25$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.4	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	19c	478.31$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.88	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca2…d740backed Over	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	50c	355.5$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.97	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	48c	297$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.56	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	39c	260.52$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.87	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	47c	226.26$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.17	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x042a…7f4cbacked Under	58c	171.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.49	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01af…f34ebacked Over	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	66	36.4%24 W · 42 L	-5.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59b2…7025backed Under	75c	146.35$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.59	111	36%40 W · 71 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	48c	145.83$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Under	59c	136.57$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.57	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	23c	125$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Under	50c	99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	430	52.3%225 W · 205 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	46c	91.52$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.44	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Under	58c	86.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	27c	80.03$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.57	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	25c	75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	58c	68.97$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.97	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	75c	66$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under	50c	64$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over	43c	58.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d8…480bbacked Over	44c	53.02$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.33	83	36.1%30 W · 53 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Under	57c	52.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.63	242	48.3%117 W · 125 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bd…b9cbbacked Over	43c	41.86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e4b…6396backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x542c…76d1backed Over	48c	40.42$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-31%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9331…0951backed Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Over	43c	35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Under	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	99	41.4%41 W · 58 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2942…5c1bbacked Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Under	69c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-11.2wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Under	54c	28.15$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.95	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	46c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcab4…9895backed Over	43c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…af09backed Under	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x092d…f5ecbacked Under	78c	18.36$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.02	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event