NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c9e162c1448db817053021d7b1251ac42dd76138fed4479da4e90645aa9c1a

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Pistons, Heat
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $101,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $102,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,919 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat	50c	18,712$9,356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,356.01	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9315…a744backed Pistons	52c	18,000$9,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,360	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+10.7wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x18a4…1a5dbacked Heat	48c	18,000$8,640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,360	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6576…6cc5backed Heat	48c	17,000$8,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,840	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Pistons	52c	17,000$8,840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,840	132	49.2%65 W · 67 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9b…945abacked Pistons	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Pistons	53c	7,171$3,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,800.37	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	50c	6,618$3,329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,289.22	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons	50c	6,456$3,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,199.55	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	48c	6,055$2,918 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,137.75	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Pistons	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcddc…a8cfbacked Pistons	53c	3,050$1,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,616.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Heat	49c	3,030$1,485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,545.3	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9e…0262backed Pistons	53c	2,800$1,483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,483	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.9wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d16…844ebacked Pistons	51c	2,750$1,402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,402.46	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Heat	50c	2,714$1,344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,370.25	197	47.7%94 W · 103 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat	49c	2,280$1,117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,162.94	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Heat	47c	1,942$912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,029.7	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	48c	1,585$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$818.66	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Pistons	51c	1,475$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.22	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pistons	52c	1,124$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.95	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d46…b09bbacked Pistons	53c	1,054$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.67	158	57%90 W · 68 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Pistons	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Heat	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Heat	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	211	52.6%111 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Heat	49c	999.95$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$509.98	587	40%235 W · 352 L	+24.3wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Pistons	50c	705$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.5	100	42%42 W · 58 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat	48c	691.16$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.4	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Pistons	53c	566.04$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	386	49.5%191 W · 195 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Pistons	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	248	47.6%118 W · 130 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Heat	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Heat	47c	500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Heat	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Pistons	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Pistons	51c	356$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.56	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a83…195bbacked Pistons	61c	327.23$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Heat	50c	300.12$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.12	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Pistons	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Pistons	53c	299.5$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.74	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pistons	52c	249.9$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.39	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Heat	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	98	44.9%44 W · 54 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e88…7c99backed Heat	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Pistons	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Pistons	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	235	53.6%126 W · 109 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed Heat	66c	191.85$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.31	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-7.4wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1bae…7e8cbacked Pistons	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a4…7e2dbacked Pistons	53c	188.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pistons	9c	177.6$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ff…4085backed Pistons	53c	169.87$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.03	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Pistons	35c	147$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.43	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Heat	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat	38c	137.38$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.17	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Pistons	53c	113.21$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	93	54.8%51 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…629fbacked Heat	50c	108$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Heat	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc535…6047backed Heat	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	138	34.1%47 W · 91 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b39…e1e6backed Heat	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	82	41.5%34 W · 48 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3f…cb14backed Pistons	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5216…38b0backed Pistons	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pistons	52c	93.72$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.37	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6931…89cabacked Heat	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	102	48%49 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Pistons	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	309	45.3%140 W · 169 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Pistons	50c	70.49$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.25	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Pistons	52c	67.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	377	55.7%210 W · 167 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bbb…1a0dbacked Pistons	49c	50.73$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…67cbbacked Pistons	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc7…265ebacked Pistons	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Pistons	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	153	55.6%85 W · 68 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f7…0899backed Pistons	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0a…7d46backed Pistons	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Pistons	52c	34.62$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ea…21e1backed Pistons	43c	34.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	119	30.3%36 W · 83 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Heat	47c	34.04$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.04	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef23…9971backed Heat	48c	31.2$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	281	56.2%158 W · 123 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Pistons	51c	30.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Heat	50c	30.2$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.1	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2942…5c1bbacked Pistons	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Heat	48c	29.76$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed Heat	60c	25.38$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.24	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d1…6288backed Pistons	53c	22.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe533…8d18backed Heat	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event