NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d49641853c9426a329e5dd8588c3e824f0780b4df7b94a308d27f684a38a96f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d16…844ebacked Under | 52c | 6,566$3,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 54c | 4,740$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.4 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 4,014$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 2,525$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 2,235$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.23 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 1,921$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.93 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 54c | 556.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.59 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 47c | 92.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 63.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Over | 54c | 46.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 40.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 38.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…8a65backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 48c | 22.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5this page
- Heat vs. PistonsHeat won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.