Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Syria next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d69ae4da41cafaeb6c40fe605d7f1677bb504e1a2d7490422de42894bffa719
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 49c | 10,030$4,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,927.28 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537b…6a59backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…c450backed Yes | 76c | 7,722$5,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,834.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 47c | 6,340$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,378.86 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 1c | 4,428$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,364$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.85 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 12c | 4,277$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 24c | 3,844$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,834$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 3,719$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.15 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 43c | 3,561$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…0c7fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 65c | 3,392$2,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.78 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 10c | 3,269$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.9 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 29c | 2,921$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.43 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,725$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…7a20backed Yes | 39c | 2,687$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 10c | 2,183$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.27 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 12c | 2,102$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.36 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 56c | 1,954$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.03 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 1,865$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 72c | 1,802$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 55c | 1,750$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.66 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 44c | 1,723$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.65 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 61c | 1,663$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.17 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…22efbacked Yes | 26c | 1,634$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 57c | 1,561$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.66 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e4e5backed Yes | 24c | 1,370$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…2a76backed Yes | 18c | 1,355$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.19 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…4ee5backed Yes | 34c | 1,320$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,310$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.35 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…b9e2backed Yes | 20c | 1,231$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,093$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…334dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,057$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 11c | 976.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 48c | 887.86$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.87 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 43c | 886.57$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…68e6backed Yes | 20c | 863.42$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…7ceebacked Yes | 13c | 799.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 799.8$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.3 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 60c | 780.97$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.08 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 34c | 757.55$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.43 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 18c | 712.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 14c | 707.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.48 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 17c | 699.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 694$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 672.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…f248backed Yes | 20c | 625.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…80febacked Yes | 12c | 568.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…6253backed Yes | 8c | 552.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…fc0dbacked Yes | 24c | 538.08$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 12c | 526.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 497.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 13c | 479.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 4c | 476$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 464.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes | 11c | 461.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…2126backed Yes | 22c | 449.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 26c | 442.54$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.98 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes | 22c | 435.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 428.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 4c | 427.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…377cbacked Yes | 24c | 421.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 72c | 403.34$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa169…ec72backed No | 74c | 400$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 16c | 396.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…eb10backed Yes | 13c | 393.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…b38bbacked Yes | 21c | 390$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Yes | 17c | 360.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…5bb5backed Yes | 14c | 357.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed Yes | 17c | 353.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f1…1419backed Yes | 23c | 349.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c10…2f5dbacked Yes | 14c | 348.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 18c | 329.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 329.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 10c | 318$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c93…86eebacked Yes | 16c | 317.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68a…97b1backed No | 67c | 312.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes | 13c | 306.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 17c | 304.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 19c | 302.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 52c | 300.77$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.68 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 22c | 300.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 26c | 289.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 269.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…1766backed No | 48c | 267.25$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dda…a4a3backed Yes | 38c | 266.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…61a4backed Yes | 23c | 262.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…6483backed Yes | 21c | 260.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 19c | 259.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed No | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 14c | 250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 29c | 244.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 5c | 244.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…10f5backed Yes | 21c | 242.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Syria next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.