Middle East · resolved market

Will the US strike Iran next?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285908f7d6ef04ca37e4650ebb8ba9b6d323bbe5ab3e33d8162a80906a552e5f

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,174,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,106,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,174,637 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9da5…8c13backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f9…835abacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b86…dc94backed Yes	0c	40,278$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.04	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x259d…2062backed Yes	0c	38,315$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa154…2320backed Yes	0c	31,476$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	30,303$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.06	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…6ef7backed Yes	0c	27,459$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc3…41c2backed Yes	0c	25,212$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e67…2829backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33d1…d365backed Yes	0c	19,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b67…5882backed Yes	0c	18,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0615…4b60backed Yes	2c	17,808$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.47	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17c5…a080backed Yes	2c	17,327$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.34	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-84.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd780…5d05backed Yes	1c	16,527$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4994…2d6dbacked Yes	1c	16,181$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf79…decebacked Yes	1c	16,109$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba4c…c7c6backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…3ad2backed Yes	0c	12,596$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9deb…01d1backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ced…07bebacked Yes	0c	11,881$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf125…2b56backed Yes	0c	10,599$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a72…1598backed Yes	0c	10,510$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44e7…19debacked Yes	0c	10,020$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+81.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb710…6639backed Yes	12c	10,000$1,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,222.34	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	8c	8,656$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680.51	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f18…171dbacked Yes	2c	6,712$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes	3c	5,888$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.64	70	2.9%2 W · 68 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes	3c	5,708$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4e…6664backed Yes	11c	5,256$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa6…27d2backed Yes	1c	5,153$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	12cpaid	+115.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2c…de33backed Yes	1c	5,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.44	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd9…67c4backed Yes	1c	4,826$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x537b…6a59backed Yes	2c	4,632$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba3…0822backed Yes	2c	4,522$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	0c	4,305$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	3c	4,249$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.15	68	13.2%9 W · 59 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa43b…9447backed Yes	20c	4,241$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$860.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b0…d381backed Yes	1c	4,134$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65e…1926backed Yes	2c	4,028$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.17	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a9…08dabacked Yes	5c	3,992$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Yes	2c	3,476$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa597…c90dbacked Yes	9c	3,260$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.4	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9370…9e88backed Yes	2c	3,157$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc068…e07ebacked Yes	5c	2,886$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.37	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf975…b16abacked Yes	2c	2,741$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes	15c	2,708$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+9.1wins	+0.25per pick	36cpaid	+51.7%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x00b8…43fdbacked Yes	1c	2,700$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	2,608$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.75	143	0.7%1 W · 142 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-92.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09eb…8af8backed Yes	2c	2,563$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6580…abacbacked Yes	1c	2,536$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb82e…bc64backed Yes	6c	2,409$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes	7c	2,310$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.39	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes	17c	2,304$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.18	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes	2c	2,215$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	10c	2,208$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.43	221	7.2%16 W · 205 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3557…655cbacked Yes	2c	2,136$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.31	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9f…9d99backed Yes	0c	2,096$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	2,072$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.17	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9105…4c47backed Yes	2c	2,069$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.93	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes	2c	2,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-4.4wins	-0.16per pick	30cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	1,956$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.75	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	8c	1,845$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.45	238	4.6%11 W · 227 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47c6…ece0backed Yes	2c	1,821$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.96	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc227…b90cbacked Yes	8c	1,806$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af3…2ddcbacked Yes	13c	1,771$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb238…d5bdbacked Yes	9c	1,739$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe44c…d736backed Yes	2c	1,693$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4528…99e2backed Yes	17c	1,684$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.33	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.14per pick	31cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96b4…85b5backed Yes	2c	1,669$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4200…7545backed Yes	12c	1,642$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes	3c	1,603$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.45	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	16cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99f4…4b55backed Yes	2c	1,596$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7caf…3511backed Yes	8c	1,575$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5d5…2db5backed Yes	10c	1,562$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef87…d589backed Yes	9c	1,500$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	43cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1d6…78e3backed Yes	2c	1,493$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd004…bf9fbacked Yes	41c	1,431$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4931…6396backed Yes	6c	1,403$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd4f…1ea0backed Yes	11c	1,368$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.98	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e38…417cbacked Yes	2c	1,362$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+92.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfef…689bbacked Yes	2c	1,344$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe08f…f991backed Yes	1c	1,343$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…c93bbacked Yes	1c	1,336$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+185.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f1…1419backed Yes	8c	1,311$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc610…5d03backed Yes	12c	1,295$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88be…758fbacked Yes	8c	1,249$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	19cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb2…dd5ebacked Yes	8c	1,243$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.81	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…eae2backed Yes	16c	1,241$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c7d…9881backed Yes	16c	1,216$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+3.5wins	+0.15per pick	31cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes	10c	1,216$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.96	131	6.1%8 W · 123 L	-10.4wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,183$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb114…8355backed Yes	3c	1,181$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.83	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f7b…ea70backed Yes	9c	1,135$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5285…3cdbbacked Yes	8c	1,124$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1059…0583backed Yes	1c	1,109$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe49b…56a6backed Yes	10c	1,105$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5972…949cbacked Yes	1c	1,089$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf913…3851backed Yes	19c	1,075$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the US strike Iran next?this page
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
Will the US strike Syria next?No won
Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
Will the US strike another country first?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the US strike Iran next?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event