TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9370…9e88

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst CS2 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$72
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$174
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$28.75
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.55
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$46
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$24.36
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+25%+$60
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$181
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$581.05
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$698Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$697.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$207
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+400%+$320
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$317.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$524.75
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$27.4
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$864Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$863.77
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+43.4%+$121
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$283
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$262
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+156.4%+$60.99
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$18.85
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+177.8%+$36.37
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+32%+$48.47
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$386.3
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$46.8
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$75
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.5
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$174
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+250.9%+$143
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$148
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+40.4%+$129.5
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+222.6%+$34.5
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$140.17
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+170.3%+$37.8
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+38.9%+$28
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$79
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+38.9%+$28
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.32
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$328
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+155.3%+$365
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+80.1%+$280.57
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$112
Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$36.94
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+203%+$255.05
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+29.7%+$45.8
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+50.8%+$101
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$35.3
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$366.35
All 15 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-78.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+129%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$131
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$73.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.