Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x461e22e3ef7e027bb8e6a8e1c8e40db12235ff69ccc6cdcfb8200976d376a97c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 19c | 5,225$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.12 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 29c | 1,700$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 32c | 826.27$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.68 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 824.79$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…7477backed Yes | 26c | 771.23$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 30c | 682.84$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 27c | 636.85$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.37 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 24c | 603.81$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 27c | 584.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Yes | 20c | 458.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 73c | 440$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 408.04$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 358.97$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 344.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 310.13$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…cc97backed Yes | 32c | 256$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1e…9e26backed Yes | 24c | 208.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 26c | 204.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 25c | 187.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 33c | 161.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 131.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 128.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 30c | 128.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 32c | 111.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 109.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 22c | 107.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…9f5bbacked Yes | 31c | 102.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…140abacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…cd18backed Yes | 34c | 87.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…9dfbbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 30c | 77.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…0643backed Yes | 32c | 70.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5a…b80cbacked Yes | 22c | 67.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f3…8b96backed Yes | 30c | 61.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…8288backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…4803backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…020abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…f847backed Yes | 31c | 47.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1b39backed Yes | 31c | 40.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…e1c0backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 39.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 28c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…9ba4backed No | 74c | 35.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…65f0backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…10e6backed No | 72c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…9a3ebacked Yes | 33c | 31.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…fd08backed No | 72c | 29.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdb…96c4backed No | 74c | 24.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b31…b4d2backed No | 73c | 23.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 70c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f97…b742backed No | 72c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.