Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x895751822191055f81a6fbe0c1eb47f8f6c1d3f9b6e4eac4334d17d3dda33c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Yes | 67c | 17,364$11,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,768.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 33c | 8,615$2,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,856.37 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 36c | 8,407$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015.3 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 61c | 5,627$3,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.95 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 30c | 3,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Yes | 64c | 2,744$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed No | 48c | 2,580$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 35c | 2,353$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…bd19backed Yes | 67c | 2,265$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 48c | 2,188$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 37c | 1,969$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.12 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 76c | 1,456$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.25 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 47c | 1,392$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.23 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,251$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 1,226$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 76c | 1,200$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.07 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 20c | 1,133$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 44c | 1,001$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.68 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 6c | 876.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 870.42$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 54c | 838.56$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.96 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 62c | 813.23$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.76 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…9643backed Yes | 58c | 807.96$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…3222backed Yes | 50c | 805.88$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Yes | 74c | 755.58$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 16c | 679.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 55c | 664.9$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…5c94backed Yes | 54c | 602.3$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed No | 39c | 574.84$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…eca3backed Yes | 79c | 533.55$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 57c | 529.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…c021backed Yes | 76c | 521$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 42c | 452$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.56 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 56c | 447.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ce36backed Yes | 58c | 420$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.18 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…a14cbacked Yes | 72c | 419.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…8303backed Yes | 57c | 390.78$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…f92abacked Yes | 58c | 345.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…d72dbacked Yes | 55c | 331.62$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 53c | 330$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 38c | 325.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 66c | 317.46$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…3b7cbacked Yes | 56c | 312.57$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 36c | 307.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…aa98backed Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 246.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 48c | 241.88$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 57c | 237.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…e037backed Yes | 56c | 230.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 43c | 219.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed No | 47c | 212.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…a2e1backed Yes | 58c | 206.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes | 69c | 203.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 78c | 196.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 70c | 184.34$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 56c | 179.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c0…d6b7backed Yes | 57c | 175.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 56c | 168.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…3e21backed Yes | 44c | 165$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 73c | 163.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…e5b5backed No | 36c | 163.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 56c | 155$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes | 65c | 153.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…0643backed Yes | 60c | 147.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…65f0backed No | 45c | 140.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf307…2aa8backed Yes | 71c | 139.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 56c | 128.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901a…30f8backed Yes | 55c | 125.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…f53abacked Yes | 58c | 125.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…08c6backed Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 60c | 109.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 46c | 109.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0a…c5c0backed No | 46c | 108.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 108.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…d636backed Yes | 79c | 107$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f9…5e71backed Yes | 78c | 106.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41bd…6614backed Yes | 59c | 101.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 62c | 101.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…9f5bbacked Yes | 52c | 100.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…e022backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…24e7backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 42c | 95.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…a763backed Yes | 57c | 93.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06e…7ec8backed Yes | 57c | 92.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 91.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Yes | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…a2e7backed Yes | 59c | 88.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.