TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9a5f…7014

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT3619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.46
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$20.68
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+259.3%+$127.2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.16
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$6.48
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.81
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.23
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.52
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.94
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+490.3%+$70.6
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.11
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.09
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.06
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.55
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.06
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.16
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C or below on March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.94
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.55
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 80°F or higher on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.74
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.15
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.12
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.59
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$45.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+117.4%+$642.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Reformation's market cap be between $1.4B and $1.6B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Team Spoon vs. Team Coop: O/U 279.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.