Middle East · resolved market
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83f38b0110a93a4e68d2391dc70868ab1f8a9a074de58b0ef50d5312e3fcfcf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,086,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,982,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,086,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4853…0999backed Yes | 0c | 5,988,109$11,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,976.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 34,859$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 16,119$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…c668backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfb…9109backed Yes | 0c | 7,476$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde8…8fd4backed Yes | 0c | 5,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 4c | 5,041$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149e…4c62backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,278$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 7c | 2,112$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.81 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…00babacked Yes | 7c | 1,878$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 1,777$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 1,659$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,152$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 706.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 6c | 699.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 661.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 5c | 644.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 545.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 384.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 357.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 355.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…40dabacked Yes | 9c | 270$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 244.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…34eebacked Yes | 7c | 240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 9c | 239.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 6c | 210.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 7c | 188$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 7c | 145.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.