Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77eafa497fe8ff7a41f540e2920e8897540b01f06b82477d168c4a21a7f9e57a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,642,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,622,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,642,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcdb…102abacked Yes | 0c | 890,262$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb35…b137backed Yes | 0c | 364,444$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 15,768$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4853…0999backed Yes | 0c | 15,600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 4c | 6,057$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.06 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,081$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 1,264$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 917$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 6c | 855.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…3decbacked Yes | 10c | 853.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 800.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 745.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6682…e547backed Yes | 5c | 631.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +255.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…a7b1backed Yes | 8c | 613.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +258.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 511.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 3c | 494.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 374$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa465…6b06backed Yes | 6c | 322.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…378dbacked Yes | 5c | 306.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 286.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 5c | 228.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 223.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 201.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 187.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 7c | 177.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 153.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed Yes | 10c | 146.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…3c11backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +326.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?this page
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.