Middle East · resolved market
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80590117819c7b4a2be045d98f7be8247fa13162830e5540bec140d14829e9eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcdb…102abacked Yes | 0c | 46,089$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 9c | 13,146$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.51 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 7,485$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 7,120$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.34 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 2,887$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.82 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 11c | 2,669$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 2,356$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.3 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes | 7c | 1,870$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,820$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 1,147$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,115$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 885.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 851.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 812.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 811.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 787.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 704.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 7c | 505$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4370…ee4fbacked Yes | 10c | 501.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…c617backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…4386backed Yes | 4c | 452.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes | 7c | 420$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 9c | 417.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 404.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…1eb6backed Yes | 4c | 364.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 7c | 332$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…f766backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8f…3186backed Yes | 7c | 280$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x706e…537fbacked Yes | 4c | 251.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0db…1a97backed Yes | 8c | 245.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…53f8backed Yes | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…643fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 10c | 161$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a236backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 9c | 125.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc384…ec9ebacked Yes | 10c | 101.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 72c | 23.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?this page
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?No won
- Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.