AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d204734eab189f5b1a10825f04a0b2441b4bd592c5ffe41f167117d08619288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd626…fddbbacked No | 38c | 428.41$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…6c2cbacked Yes | 66c | 152.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 47c | 118.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…b0e9backed No | 35c | 101.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed No | 59c | 84.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 68c | 73.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 46c | 70.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 49c | 66.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 65c | 61.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 31c | 58.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 30c | 56.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 54.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 33c | 52.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a7…7f75backed Yes | 62c | 51.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…d327backed Yes | 68c | 50.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 44.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 51c | 44.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 48c | 43.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed No | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 34c | 38.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 39c | 35.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…cf93backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…bab3backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…f90bbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?this page
- Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?No won
- Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.