AI · resolved market
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc204d2d1b160afd8e279a9e426e65468945d648a61c85eebc8d834149a44c5f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 79c | 848.2$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 77c | 351.18$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 335.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.88 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 253.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…164cbacked No | 78c | 252.15$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 250.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 80c | 211.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.68 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 19c | 157.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.18 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 21c | 111$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c5ebbacked No | 74c | 87.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed Yes | 21c | 70.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 21c | 67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…48b6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…2276backed No | 79c | 28.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…615abacked No | 76c | 19.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?No won
- Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.