Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e26437e5c1e173b03ec6334b680cb6e8c047f65d97e9643c48cabf6380aa1dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,638 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0964…5f3bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,750$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…5d40backed Yes | 3c | 3,250$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 11c | 1,807$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.39 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 1,332$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 13c | 1,285$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.86 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 18c | 999.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 18c | 990$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 882.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Yes | 14c | 881.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eae…e469backed Yes | 28c | 741.05$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 20c | 595.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 77c | 533.04$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 78c | 499.98$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 72c | 457.85$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…8174backed Yes | 23c | 437.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 31c | 327.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes | 22c | 311.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…91fbbacked Yes | 10c | 298.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 18c | 269$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…649cbacked Yes | 27c | 260.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 18c | 257$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 255$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 21c | 207.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 202.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 201$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 63 | 81%51 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 14c | 197.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 6c | 187.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 116.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 22c | 100.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 99.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Yes | 17c | 99.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked No | 71c | 98.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 94.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…44f4backed Yes | 22c | 86.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 17c | 85.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 80.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 24c | 79.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…e8c0backed Yes | 16c | 76.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…0ae9backed Yes | 20c | 76.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…c8b2backed Yes | 23c | 68.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 67.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed Yes | 18c | 67.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…8258backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 22c | 58.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 22c | 54.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…d4febacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 77c | 48.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 40.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…56e4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…1b08backed Yes | 30c | 38.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 37.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 80c | 34.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 227 | 70.9%161 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6e…e995backed No | 76c | 32.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9c…56a9backed No | 77c | 32.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e4…1660backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…96a0backed No | 72c | 31.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9814…b594backed No | 72c | 30.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…c60bbacked No | 72c | 29.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223c…6352backed No | 72c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca9…f5d3backed No | 74c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.