TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,046 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes36c2,765$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7730714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c2,122$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.512,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes10c1,147$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.431238.9%11 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907025.7%18 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes22c896.3$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.867714.3%11 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No75c833.48$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.191866.7%12 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No74c749.97$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.994070%28 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes6c708.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.422512%3 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes15c703.01$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.724732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes23c587.56$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.627920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Yes45c554.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid+35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes20c530.86$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2941718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes5c526.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2925617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.971931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes32c483.97$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.017326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0be…8d08backed Yes12c472.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes4c423.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0513119.1%25 W · 106 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10729.7%7 W · 65 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9454…7f72backed Yes26c381.04$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.071127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes9c341.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa279…c30dbacked Yes32c307.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f1…25f6backed Yes30c302.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+90.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes18c296.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2165623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No72c291.99$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.63971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2863…91fbbacked Yes14c285.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf1e…8136backed Yes10c273.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c255$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes25c251.23$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6319550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34c4…9c93backed Yes11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes21c243.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c243.03$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6737830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes43c230.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004035%14 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes8c218.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.642718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes11c211.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.731450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes24c206.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.582128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes21c200.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4140016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446381%51 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick75cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No79c189.9$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6831565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes44c185.58$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8125127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c170.11$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5151845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9349…0486backed Yes33c170$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.451533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes15c168.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4850828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No53c164$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.081968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No77c152.51$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.595612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes44c151.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7714025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e9…cfb0backed Yes42c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.53644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c147.51$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9499619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbef1…d41cbacked Yes8c143.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.862133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes21c141.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.19012.2%11 W · 79 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes16c139.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9779735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No76c139.36$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.099058.9%53 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes26c134.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3543027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes12c133.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1612232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd8c…2600backed Yes24c130.29$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.271020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-71.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa601…cad0backed Yes43c120$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes36c118.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.41643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes30c118.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7443933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes28c117.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3219527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f8…ccacbacked Yes34c116.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.128622.1%19 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes9c115.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3824710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes19c113.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7552619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa539…c217backed Yes18c110$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+64%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaf9…ea65backed Yes46c105$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x829f…5f7dbacked Yes11c105$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes13c103.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-8.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes25c102.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2124932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes11c100.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110623.6%25 W · 81 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.141220.6%85 W · 327 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3960%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9da5…44f4backed Yes37c98.79$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb37…6883backed Yes41c96.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405735.1%20 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x440a…0ae9backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No61c88.83$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.853363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes15c86.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.031040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d4…0787backed Yes19c73.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4e…0432backed Yes35c72.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.281020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No78c63.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.95366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2c…8258backed Yes26c61.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164235.7%15 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd614…d4febacked Yes36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.65930.5%18 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No59c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.346243.5%27 W · 35 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes21c57.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0afd…b9c9backed No56c55.54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.262462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes21c52.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7534039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2d…02e1backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf95d…e957backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8028…b6fabacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bc…10adbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xede3…2f81backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.757833.3%26 W · 52 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x29e4…16a6backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.