TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa601…cad0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
200
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: NFL, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 55 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT6618.2%12 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$144.9
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.25
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.07
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.43
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$27
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+61.7%+$26.7
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.33
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.23
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.08
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$10.6
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.95
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
War Powers resolution passes the Senate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$30.28
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$76.14
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19.2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.8
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT3026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+134.7%+$57.4
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.81
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+134.2%+$28.65
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+140.9%+$146.22
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$27.75
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.25
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$38.5
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$41.36
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+138.1%+$14.06
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.5%+$12.55
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$27.74
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$63.33
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$41.4
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$165.27
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$141.98
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$77.65
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1625%4 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
House passes Iran war powers resolution this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$16.86
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$38.1
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$17.6
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+216.7%+$34.21
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+263.3%+$230.59
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$953Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$952.59
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$125.79
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$267.46
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$193.4
5+ days Gov Shutdown Odds >50% Monday Night (12-1 AM)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.39
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+412.8%+$80.5
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$56.87
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$147.2
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-77%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.26
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.49
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.19
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$136.5
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$14.25
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 130 and 159 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Phan Van Giang be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15.08
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$44.6
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$43.78
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$105.39
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$66.77
All 14 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-78%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.8
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will GRVT launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Hyperlend FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+26.6%+$15.22
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+37%+$25.89
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$37
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+517.3%+$129.32
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.79
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+69.5%+$9.23
Will DR Congo win on 2025-12-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+72.4%+$18.1
Will South Africa win on 2025-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+177.8%+$40.71
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+220.5%+$88.22
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$16.67
Ethereum all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Solana all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+99.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Nuggets vs. Magicbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20.48
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+75.4%+$678.95
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+72.4%+$10.09
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+25%+$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+215.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+215.5%+$102.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$38.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$55.59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.