TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,279,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,321,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,279,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 501 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ab5…e123backed No49c39,000$18,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,915520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-74.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x744e…4c43backed Yes52c38,992$20,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,911.095100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+85.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddae…33ccbacked Yes73c23,795$17,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,424.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eee…b34dbacked No27c23,795$6,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,424.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No32c14,270$4,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,564.0215932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c9,970$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.784440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f0…7962backed No8c8,652$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No9c6,451$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.386229%18 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c6,369$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.336883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No1c5,877$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ff…8750backed No7c5,581$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked No9c4,750$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.991323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf807…65a2backed No2c4,478$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed No28c4,412$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.224040%16 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd459…13f9backed No13c4,363$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed No5c4,272$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.271020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No12c3,443$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6151…1678backed No1c3,163$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d9…1fd3backed No1c3,061$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed No46c3,000$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.757828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10cc…9816backed No1c2,976$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf87…ebc0backed No1c2,926$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f0…023fbacked No1c2,909$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe04b…c716backed No1c2,888$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1921…aa67backed No1c2,771$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffe…4478backed No4c2,660$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ee…27e4backed No1c2,637$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f2…ccddbacked No1c2,617$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e0…99b6backed No1c2,598$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9018…0ae5backed No1c2,562$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b3…4468backed No1c2,553$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed No9c2,549$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.071258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+42.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5d6…29b5backed No1c2,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x246d…3364backed No1c2,434$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf068…dc96backed No1c2,396$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8f…f98abacked No1c2,349$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee7…f2b0backed No1c2,310$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c8…a6d6backed No1c2,307$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad80…73f1backed No1c2,233$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4903…0242backed No1c2,231$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb0…4488backed Yes56c2,229$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c4…a89fbacked No1c2,205$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19da…1666backed No1c2,196$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a57…fff4backed No1c2,190$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42b…4626backed No1c2,142$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8660…79f8backed No1c2,126$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2894…e6a0backed No1c2,093$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa700…a6e9backed No1c2,087$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f0…49bcbacked No1c2,051$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2452…7a37backed No2c2,045$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Yes55c2,032$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f87…f277backed No13c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.943636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e7…606cbacked No1c1,973$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4a…238ebacked No11c1,947$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9705…6844backed No1c1,933$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed No5c1,922$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a43…c867backed No1c1,920$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…809dbacked No1c1,917$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a9…4f6abacked No11c1,890$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa937…3325backed No1c1,871$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…5b1ebacked No1c1,845$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76f…6892backed No1c1,829$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725f…fa87backed No1c1,821$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa21…72d4backed No1c1,785$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a2…6419backed No1c1,784$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No18c1,769$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3536742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d1…b35cbacked No1c1,735$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1693…e5ebbacked No1c1,725$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43bd…71a8backed No1c1,683$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14dd…2996backed No2c1,680$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4e…cf40backed No1c1,674$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671e…bcc6backed No1c1,664$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee41…477ebacked No1c1,656$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc0…5124backed No1c1,654$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b9…2478backed No1c1,638$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7036…dfedbacked No1c1,630$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde08…2504backed No1c1,629$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes58c1,629$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.681258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57f1…cfddbacked No7c1,627$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No34c1,626$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.3746330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f87…0901backed No2c1,624$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0697…28afbacked No1c1,623$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f17…1da4backed No1c1,608$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c4…8f95backed No1c1,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea07…02d9backed No1c1,594$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c47…954fbacked No1c1,569$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cc7…fe1cbacked No6c1,561$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e2…50e2backed No1c1,561$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2970…f89bbacked No1c1,556$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No7c1,539$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0213444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfcbf…3b98backed No1c1,536$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced9…ff9dbacked No2c1,510$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb443…ab0fbacked No1c1,505$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca5…7215backed No1c1,491$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…af1ebacked No1c1,480$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1256…d7c0backed No1c1,468$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c13…d1f1backed No1c1,447$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d8…fa68backed No1c1,444$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefc…8218backed No1c1,442$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.