World Politics · resolved market
Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6985b649adaa07c86f839d9827c0a3e1c05f0d01b917509fe9273d9fe38eef13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 1c | 24,018$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…075bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…9c08backed Yes | 0c | 10,170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…be46backed Yes | 1c | 5,007$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3c…ea50backed Yes | 0c | 4,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 3c | 3,691$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,588$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,453$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,202$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3c…3219backed Yes | 3c | 2,006$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,805$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…74bebacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…57ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,262$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 3c | 973.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…67d6backed Yes | 3c | 874.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb42…8930backed Yes | 1c | 873.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…17cdbacked Yes | 11c | 765.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…6ab2backed Yes | 5c | 694.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 8c | 344.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 313$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…5c85backed Yes | 5c | 251.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes | 7c | 215$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…9ee5backed Yes | 8c | 152.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…c297backed Yes | 12c | 147.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 20c | 121.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?this page
- Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?Yes won
- Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?No won
- Will Harka Sampang be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?No won
- Will Pushpa Kamal Dahal (“Prachanda”) be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?No won
- Will Rabi Lamichhane be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.