TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$210,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x087e…51c5backed Yes7c17,410$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c31…b166backed Yes0c10,170$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b99…9f1dbacked Yes0c10,156$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe93…a2f3backed Yes0c10,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes14c5,740$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-61.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c5,560$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.116883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes12c5,503$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.6415932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes4c4,834$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.085332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc1…690cbacked Yes1c4,700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Yes6c3,043$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.181258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+42.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6aefbacked Yes4c2,127$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes9c2,038$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-74.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes4c2,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes5c1,805$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.392744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes12c1,150$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d6…1d3dbacked Yes15c1,097$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb333…17cdbacked Yes29c1,064$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.16825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bf…a502backed Yes15c1,059$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No74c1,043$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.737570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes14c992.29$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5546330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ae…be02backed Yes6c966$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc391…5973backed Yes15c960.45$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed Yes14c938.11$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.384040%16 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaddc…1cf7backed Yes5c680.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No76c629.99$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a57…493ebacked Yes24c621.3$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.732650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes11c620.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7213139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No74c582.95$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.243873.7%28 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5838…f739backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes4c494.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.563951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b6…ca70backed Yes24c453.21$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb26…4edfbacked Yes5c450$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75fe…706dbacked Yes13c428.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No78c416.26$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8115446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes24c401$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1813446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c43…cf02backed Yes17c353.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes8c304.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.693935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed Yes14c282.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.63565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae86…a294backed Yes36c279.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes7c279.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.56229%18 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes28c218.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.12250%11 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0169…0096backed No70c206.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.777731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a0…27a9backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee6d…0c24backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes14c199.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x110e…969fbacked Yes6c199.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a47…d7f1backed Yes23c198.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c198.08$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes8c168.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce0…7df2backed Yes9c150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde82…be3bbacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d6…a0f3backed Yes23c115$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c0…3643backed No77c114.76$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.533100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…fa55backed Yes17c106.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes28c104.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0140…1854backed Yes30c101.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2605…2b17backed Yes20c100.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137443.2%32 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c94.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.791,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa03a…e64ebacked Yes24c87.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+76.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c83.78$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2726052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes20c80.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1344921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c80.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8656314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc668…4f06backed Yes25c74.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.883243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes27c66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.823522.9%8 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No78c63.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.172759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b9…fb1cbacked No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe48…d18cbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c14…ffa5backed No78c60.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.313100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ff…916fbacked No69c54.74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.97850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6aa…7d54backed Yes23c50.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb773…ece7backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes38c46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc66…4815backed Yes24c45.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4169…98e9backed No72c41.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.772965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x376d…1496backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eae…200ebacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ace…0f16backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No74c32.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.572138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No79c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.94785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc7…1c73backed Yes42c27.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No76c26.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.378943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked No79c26.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.55633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5349…d02dbacked No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f2…4e03backed No67c23.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No75c21.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.49339.8%37 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.22030%6 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.