TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe554…ee0e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$50.15
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.6
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.21
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.93
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.21
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+34%+$25.61
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+174.5%+$25.43
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.73
Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.79
Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.1
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+76.1%+$94.24
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$14.04
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.25
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.49
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$15.55
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.79
Will Nepali Congress win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.4
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$15.61
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$67.3
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+47.2%+$106.81
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$74.9
All 22 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.92
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.98
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+309.8%+$95.25
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.9
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.53
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.82
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+80.1%+$84.3
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.34
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$56.96
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.71
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.34
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$674Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+67.9%+$458.03
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$435.89
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$18.61
Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.94
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+43.7%+$8.43
All 8 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+70.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.97
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.56
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+28.6%+$18.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+25.2%+$4.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.