TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,970 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed No1c4,900$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de7…6190backed No9c3,710$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes54c2,576$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.983647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No16c1,556$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.135111.8%6 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes77c1,170$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.696659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c885.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No16c805.75$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0320148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c690.48$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.682522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed No51c676.7$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.64032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No8c646.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed Yes29c644.79$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.88853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes25c644.79$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.524641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes39c588.91$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.341952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe71d…5cbcbacked No6c583.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80e7…d3a5backed No9c555$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c400$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30245738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No46c367.49$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.7312050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe751…5a2abacked No6c360.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.661050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No5c343.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.863042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No45c328.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.041136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No6c326.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3490%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79f3…d803backed Yes78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.121172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed No7c293.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.091435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No6c292.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42120%0 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked No7c284.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.341435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d28…985dbacked No14c280.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked No6c278.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-71.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No7c269.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c64…4e93backed Yes39c256.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.726100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No7c249.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.111711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes45c236.66$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.833839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No12c234.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No18c219.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.758650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No6c212.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7713422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No48c208.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0814643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No6c202.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick12cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No62c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.545950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No43c169.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8729430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb27e…c708backed Yes65c167.94$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No75c150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.59725.8%25 W · 72 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…66a2backed Yes56c137.08$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes33c125.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.347030%21 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No15c124.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.120544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…8dddbacked No28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No10c116.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3328826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c112.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1472935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No71c102$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.912462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3606…4e08backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.272737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaef…5b3ebacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes45c96.32$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.211145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5651…a394backed No15c87.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4177…bbe4backed Yes54c85.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.35221.2%11 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+145.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c52…f01fbacked No55c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4557…bf49backed Yes26c69.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+406.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed No19c69.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.217948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45fc…35c4backed No26c65.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.17933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f1…30a8backed No75c62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick41cpaid+91.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a26…05b7backed No43c58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27e…13a5backed No67c57.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.33450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No47c56.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2689317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5dc5…b066backed No49c50.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3912033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7227…3681backed No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-67.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fa…8fc4backed No78c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbd…2bfbbacked Yes35c47.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7691…3308backed Yes43c46.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes57c44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.123020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-54%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes45c42.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.344814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab3e…5a69backed No54c41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1470%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4324…e1a0backed No66c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+185.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No55c38.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2117350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No53c37.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe203…167cbacked Yes37c35.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+101%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No59c33.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes55c32.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.771442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No60c32.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.418544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1c2…e8a3backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed Yes63c28.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.551811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-64.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked No45c28.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b41…7067backed No62c24.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes53c21.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.021353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48955.1%49 W · 40 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210144.6%45 W · 56 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.