TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe751…5a2a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Commodities, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 53 out of 100; worst Serie A at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.1
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$7.64
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$4.64
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.38
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$17.1
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$4.85
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.76
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$7.97
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.12
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.56
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.78
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.26
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$5.11
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.99
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$24.32
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.38
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+93.5%+$14.89
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$11.01
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$6.81
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.53
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.06
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.52
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.39
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.66
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.44
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.48
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.29
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$11.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$5.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+33%+$9.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.