Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd5f01bc9f7d8214b9200773c72573987f0964f7bc4347fa6f1106ce9d1722c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 80c | 1,573$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.67 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,030$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 35c | 1,015$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…3646backed Yes | 16c | 979.86$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 15c | 730.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 44c | 577.58$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.55 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 7c | 402.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 361.72$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.61 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 19c | 323.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 25c | 308.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d6…e94bbacked No | 43c | 231.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 210.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 201.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…eb57backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…062fbacked Yes | 9c | 177.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 169$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 149.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e8…3e0bbacked Yes | 60c | 126.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 57c | 125.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 39c | 124$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 55c | 106.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 42c | 87.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f6…f13cbacked Yes | 60c | 82.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 13c | 80.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d52…b9b3backed No | 44c | 78.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 42c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 40c | 71.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked No | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…be82backed No | 38c | 66.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 64.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…170bbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 58c | 56.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 52c | 56.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 80c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 56c | 44.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…d903backed No | 46c | 43.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 59c | 42.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…14f0backed Yes | 37c | 41.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…ad99backed Yes | 62c | 40.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 57c | 38.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…bc10backed Yes | 60c | 36.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 54c | 33.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1da…2fe4backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…9da2backed Yes | 59c | 28.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 78c | 27.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 57c | 27.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f44…7470backed Yes | 38c | 26.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 62c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…5a2abacked No | 70c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…48e4backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…d8abbacked No | 71c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf299…07dcbacked Yes | 59c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…98e4backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 14.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?this page
- Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?Yes won
- Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Douglas T. Muck Jr. be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.