Us Midterms · resolved market
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b0943ccb9d5eb36f9961efb6c4f0c4f244b46a26215f176706d4bae2caf19bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccb9…f7e7backed Yes | 75c | 1,724$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 29c | 897.36$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.52 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 19c | 877.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…3646backed Yes | 25c | 610.34$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Yes | 21c | 468.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 54c | 420.8$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 399.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 319.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 53c | 254.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 30c | 194.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 6c | 192.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 77c | 181$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 179.95$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 156.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 59c | 140.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…a33bbacked Yes | 70c | 102.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 91.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 24c | 84.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 20c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 64c | 61.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…1dd7backed Yes | 79c | 57.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a6…f4acbacked No | 48c | 56.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 48c | 45.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 74c | 44.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…dbaabacked Yes | 72c | 34.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 79c | 31.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 65c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8d…080dbacked No | 78c | 13.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?this page
- Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Douglas T. Muck Jr. be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
- Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.