TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$487,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$483,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $487,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes10c6,825$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.3222833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8b…e094backed Yes3c3,493$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c5…1b0ebacked Yes7c3,452$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaccd…541dbacked Yes7c3,367$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2128…f203backed Yes10c3,209$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.11050%5 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+91.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec9f…759dbacked Yes7c3,209$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf36…82b8backed Yes3c3,134$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d4…6162backed Yes8c2,991$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1741…11d9backed Yes7c2,890$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f3…1f1dbacked Yes7c2,793$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes12c2,791$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.5619643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84a1…364bbacked Yes7c2,717$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e28…77b2backed Yes8c2,672$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c57…92fabacked Yes8c2,613$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f38…74f1backed Yes7c2,472$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814a…4bd8backed Yes7c2,377$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5043…dabebacked Yes3c2,370$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41b…6c2cbacked Yes8c2,294$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9af…8e2ebacked Yes3c2,275$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6df…680fbacked Yes3c2,259$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x221a…b2b0backed Yes3c2,245$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c7…c1dfbacked Yes3c2,186$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1861…24eabacked Yes3c2,039$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5387…aa84backed Yes8c1,971$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…b2c2backed Yes3c1,899$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73fe…a025backed Yes3c1,882$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fba…f0adbacked Yes3c1,872$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0c…e03dbacked Yes7c1,800$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea09…6c4cbacked Yes7c1,771$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e5…b29cbacked Yes3c1,765$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a9…ec02backed Yes7c1,728$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c1,692$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.371041%1 W · 103 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-88.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa29d…1061backed Yes7c1,665$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1524…8d7bbacked Yes7c1,665$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334b…910dbacked Yes3c1,634$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde38…86e9backed Yes7c1,618$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1854…7837backed Yes8c1,611$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3531…8e81backed Yes8c1,602$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816c…24aebacked Yes3c1,594$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf933…b0bfbacked Yes8c1,593$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb2…4e03backed Yes3c1,591$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3461…1016backed Yes3c1,524$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa83b…040fbacked Yes3c1,492$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeca…7126backed Yes8c1,462$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b9…00bbbacked Yes3c1,438$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda2e…1f19backed Yes3c1,420$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f8…58edbacked Yes3c1,401$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50a…774ebacked Yes7c1,362$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797d…21cbbacked Yes3c1,331$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes13c1,318$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe328…2d0dbacked Yes7c1,316$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5413…f661backed Yes8c1,310$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7242…9024backed Yes7c1,293$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…ebf9backed Yes7c1,281$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…e64fbacked Yes7c1,267$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2663…bb3ebacked Yes3c1,261$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…77f8backed Yes7c1,251$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ac…54bbbacked Yes7c1,200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a33…773ebacked Yes7c1,186$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x382d…7280backed Yes7c1,185$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x862c…ace6backed Yes8c1,167$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a01…2028backed Yes8c1,157$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8f…2a02backed Yes3c1,147$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c8…1aecbacked Yes8c1,128$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb917…e6f2backed Yes3c1,110$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1690…bb97backed Yes8c1,106$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e5…5361backed Yes8c1,089$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c5…9f99backed Yes3c1,087$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb26…fed8backed Yes8c1,066$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c4…ef28backed Yes3c1,062$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c53…2217backed Yes7c1,057$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9c…e230backed Yes8c1,056$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdb…9018backed Yes3c1,048$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x178f…771bbacked Yes8c1,044$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd7f…dbd1backed Yes8c1,036$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…df59backed Yes3c1,007$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7667…18b1backed Yes8c1,001$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dca…ffbfbacked Yes8c997$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b4…c17abacked Yes15c993$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-83.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3309…af1ebacked Yes3c987$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4bc…dcacbacked Yes3c973$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1582…e7d0backed Yes8c967$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x943a…69fabacked Yes8c943$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed3…44d6backed Yes3c939$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5118…494cbacked Yes3c935$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes13c933$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b9…3ed9backed Yes8c929$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82d…f311backed Yes3c928$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe68…4cbdbacked Yes8c898$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b0…8280backed Yes7c892$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab6…6129backed Yes8c889$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c21…3aa8backed Yes3c859$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0697…b25bbacked Yes8c857$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e1…b73cbacked Yes8c848$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef09…df14backed Yes8c844$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes15c840$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.782528%7 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes32c823$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.94812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-70.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7662…b2d7backed Yes8c807$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dbb…3eb0backed Yes8c803$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e07…582cbacked Yes7c800$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.