Us Midterms · resolved market
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01a349b16eeeb8db599767f340799c0ca028c5b85153d6ca1fe75a4c60d7b963
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 7c | 4,301$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.09 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,199$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 624.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 34c | 568$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 66c | 542$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…5b40backed No | 63c | 484.04$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 376$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 72c | 360$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 16c | 340$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 35c | 323.57$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c6…dbeabacked No | 58c | 322.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 38c | 300.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 8c | 268.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 21c | 265.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 68c | 229.94$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 6c | 227.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 19c | 226.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 66c | 226$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 34c | 226$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 42c | 184.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 31c | 182$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 176.9$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…ef99backed Yes | 33c | 174$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 15c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…c4fabacked No | 63c | 159.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 71c | 152.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 28c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 130.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 120.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 22c | 116.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 18c | 114.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…cfaebacked Yes | 20c | 110.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…4ec9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 97.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 70c | 95.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 18c | 92.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 28c | 89.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…40c6backed No | 60c | 86.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 76c | 83.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 82.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…d337backed Yes | 32c | 79.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 16c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…2c9abacked Yes | 25c | 73.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 42c | 70.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 64c | 66.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 75c | 63.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed No | 61c | 62.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 18c | 61.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 42c | 52.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 22c | 52.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…80a6backed Yes | 28c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 40c | 51.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 79c | 49.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 79c | 49.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9adbbacked No | 78c | 44.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc0…88c3backed Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…b9d1backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 39.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 72c | 37.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 37c | 34.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 31.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc8…fd71backed Yes | 38c | 29.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 78c | 28.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 69c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 79c | 26.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 79c | 26.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1668…dbb1backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 55c | 19.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?this page
- Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Yes won
- Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Winsome Earle-Sears be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.