Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd815aab33cc1c82fa9c4cb8eb751776d3353e60a8c87708b34e0ca44ba671a5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 1,267$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 29c | 612.64$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 25c | 364.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 307.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 306.68$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 52c | 225$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 26c | 164.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 153.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 151$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…5b40backed No | 71c | 138.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 72c | 113.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 71c | 105.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 105.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…1351backed No | 79c | 99.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 70c | 92.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 88.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 47c | 46.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…840cbacked Yes | 30c | 45.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 27.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c3…b5e5backed No | 73c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?this page
- Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Yes won
- Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Winsome Earle-Sears be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.