Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38cabfe3578270adcb745ea4ebc5a36a43f1977ab13b6a1204ddfa8bb29a81d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30dc…15b2backed Yes | 1c | 10,700$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 65c | 1,686$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.32 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02da…5b67backed Yes | 1c | 1,037$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…fe74backed Yes | 4c | 566.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 441.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 389.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…b7d3backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…b884backed No | 56c | 99.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 50c | 87.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…ad92backed No | 48c | 80.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 47.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 57c | 33.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 74c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…761dbacked Yes | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 59c | 29.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…c7aabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?this page
- Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Yes won
- Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
- Will Winsome Earle-Sears be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.