TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb7f0…669d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.62
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+144.5%+$161.93
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$67.93
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.72
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.31
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.14
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$188.46
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.6
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.08
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.65
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,068Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,068.23
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.04
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+504.5%+$120.18
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+119.8%+$113.9
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.32
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+113.7%+$484.65
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$102.11
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.14
Will the Boston Celtics make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$32.83
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$21.06
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$166.6
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$176.72
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$28.52
Will LaMelo Ball be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15.73
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.75
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.09
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.75
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+42.8%+$6.29
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$41.65
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$18.5
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+132.6%+$31.92
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$18.63
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$226.61
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$39.3
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$36.9
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$191.1
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17.04
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.6
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+33.3%+$144.25
Will "The Secret Agent" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$121.44
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$27.06
Will "Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$38.94
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$33.75
Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.42
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$65.79
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+112.8%+$223.13
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+44.9%+$25.72
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.12
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+32.1%+$42.28
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15.87
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$21.33
Will Franco Parisi endorse no candidate for President of Chile?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+38.9%+$18.76
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+112.8%+$37.1
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$13.86
Will Daniel Băluță get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$16.56
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+84.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+101.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+111.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+157.1%+$23.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$185.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.