Movies · resolved market
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7cafd3174a068c0577c087804826a55a09208e1c21fc4a9b6dd1a2e9a3f9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 5,801$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,684$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,592$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Yes | 8c | 891.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb350…047abacked Yes | 5c | 884$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 37c | 804.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 8c | 658.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 9c | 599.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 76c | 593$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.32 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 9c | 563.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72cd…a742backed Yes | 2c | 521$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…3cefbacked Yes | 21c | 509.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed Yes | 10c | 500.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 30c | 500$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 5c | 477$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 466.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 2c | 405.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 36c | 402$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 326.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…53c1backed No | 67c | 307.93$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 24c | 286$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…bd0cbacked Yes | 5c | 285.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 24c | 282$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 66c | 266$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 63c | 246$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…ee3ebacked Yes | 21c | 244.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 26c | 229$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 224.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked No | 65c | 211$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…71f0backed Yes | 11c | 208.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…840ebacked Yes | 34c | 202.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 197.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 24c | 191$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 6c | 182$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 45c | 170.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 34c | 169$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…692ebacked Yes | 10c | 153.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 76c | 152$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 63c | 151$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…40c6backed Yes | 38c | 145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Yes | 37c | 140.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…6af8backed Yes | 33c | 138.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 24c | 126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 122.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 76c | 111$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 11c | 105.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 37c | 103$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…f38abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 96.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…ce6abacked Yes | 46c | 85.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked No | 69c | 83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 76c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 24c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 73.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a02…c97bbacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 42c | 48.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…07e9backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 75c | 28.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…db07backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Man Vs. Baby" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.