TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$619,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$728,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $619,040 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 695 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53bf…bc10backed No40c52,446$21,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,214.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+124.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No25c50,521$12,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,531.01633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No26c25,033$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,479.940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes80c14,317$11,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.377222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked Yes74c12,559$9,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes64c11,519$7,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,167.682751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No19c11,477$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.934751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x491a…27ccbacked No20c11,170$2,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.08837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7119…7132backed Yes75c10,696$7,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No15c9,569$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.0914015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked Yes65c9,522$6,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes76c8,903$6,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,092.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed No34c8,599$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,920.233016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No21c7,861$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.996222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110f…8f39backed Yes79c6,764$5,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.54472.7%32 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+59.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9b02…caa6backed Yes76c5,930$4,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No14c5,876$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.4333123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes68c5,680$3,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.972714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No19c5,000$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.842516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes52c4,804$2,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.236731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aaf…4637backed Yes43c4,720$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c4,460$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.248414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7810…9c4dbacked No36c4,357$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No22c4,330$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.112937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed No23c4,214$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.1611637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes68c4,208$2,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No28c4,147$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.734314%6 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57f3…5d20backed Yes73c4,125$3,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No22c4,000$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.996732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No17c3,700$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6434420.5%9 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No23c3,634$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.061729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No46c3,486$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6005839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes63c3,429$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.221838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked No36c3,392$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.631323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf05…79febacked No21c3,176$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked Yes70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.173100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf95…694dbacked Yes73c2,993$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8191850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No19c2,933$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.431631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x594c…3399backed Yes76c2,931$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No15c2,903$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.283225%8 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Yes54c2,885$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb61d…f87cbacked Yes75c2,839$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.21366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945c…a489backed No60c2,796$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.23520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No28c2,791$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.258345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df1…ea12backed Yes80c2,736$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x684f…c3a7backed Yes78c2,662$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d26…3286backed Yes80c2,619$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Yes64c2,600$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef6c…8cc1backed No20c2,550$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc88b…dba8backed Yes80c2,500$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb0…4141backed Yes74c2,500$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea96…11e3backed Yes49c2,500$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.642339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed No25c2,460$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb373…c8b0backed Yes78c2,401$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffa9…1168backed Yes77c2,301$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes60c2,280$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked Yes80c2,243$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d3…53c1backed Yes51c2,206$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.512138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes76c2,163$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No13c2,121$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafcf…d662backed Yes72c2,081$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No36c2,022$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.52458.9%4 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8f…40cfbacked No10c2,020$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No19c2,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes80c1,970$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.61735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No18c1,930$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.754663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7eb8…7aa5backed Yes80c1,902$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b0…3ec9backed No6c1,900$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed No26c1,808$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.211442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No25c1,800$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.793935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked No21c1,800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b9…a59fbacked Yes56c1,778$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes75c1,750$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.053923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No22c1,750$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.745242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4e…411abacked Yes76c1,730$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff0b…befabacked Yes78c1,702$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x943b…fe84backed Yes79c1,671$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes73c1,594$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.25518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x272b…0a6ebacked Yes71c1,525$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No16c1,500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c58…7aebbacked Yes68c1,471$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes73c1,461$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.391050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9844…5e6cbacked No25c1,453$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No16c1,445$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.861127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce8…3cefbacked No22c1,436$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c76…f995backed Yes59c1,394$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.41633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No41c1,389$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.0513740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…c1c2backed Yes78c1,368$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes79c1,277$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.931729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…1acdbacked No20c1,271$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.31030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9463…27c8backed Yes79c1,270$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Yes80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7402…6a0cbacked No23c1,236$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked No13c1,226$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.321020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf059…6f38backed Yes43c1,205$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.9633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49a9…82b9backed Yes75c1,198$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes49c1,181$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.933910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes59c1,154$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.