TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x943b…fe84

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT2119%4 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick37cpaid-50%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$470
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.06
Bucks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$2,500
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$347.3
76ers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Hawks vs. Raptorsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$246
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$73.5
Celtics vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Nuggets vs. Mavericksbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+81.4%+$553.33
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$59
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$54.07
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.18
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$177.28
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$87
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$244.83
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$53.85
Pistons vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$216
All 21 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$105.98
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$13.3
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25
Will BP (BP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+78.6%+$51.22
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$397.72
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$568Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+37.9%+$214.98
Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$63.35
Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+29.9%+$96.42
Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+25%+$91.68
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$31.8
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$436Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+43.7%+$190.43
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+46.1%+$89.62
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+33.3%+$187.42
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$121.24
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+76.6%+$331.76
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+50.1%+$125.81
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+49.1%+$355.51
All 8 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-78.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+143.2%+$258.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.6%+$109.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,320Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.6%+$351.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$159.69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.