Earnings · resolved market
Will BP (BP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaca9df5d98e59cd5911c9eb9689741d453a29445de82727a32f332f7356f2bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 31c | 1,951$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.03 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…b003backed Yes | 1c | 1,142$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98d…9df5backed No | 61c | 858.18$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 762.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 20c | 616.81$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 36c | 599.89$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.08 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 76c | 430$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 11c | 403.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.93 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 49c | 343.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.78 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 52c | 287.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 76c | 264.78$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 10c | 260.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 185.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 56c | 181.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 55c | 181.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 23c | 177.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Yes | 7c | 176.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…f1f7backed No | 60c | 165.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 31c | 164$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…d206backed No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed No | 56c | 116.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 48c | 104.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 104$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 52c | 96.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed Yes | 65c | 95.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…8506backed Yes | 62c | 80.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 42c | 79.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…cd31backed Yes | 46c | 77.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 55c | 72.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…174dbacked Yes | 42c | 68.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…3753backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed No | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…749fbacked Yes | 47c | 52.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3230…3fbebacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked Yes | 35c | 49.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…0607backed Yes | 45c | 47.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 62c | 46.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…afbebacked Yes | 46c | 46.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…bb54backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Yes | 46c | 38.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed No | 68c | 36.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb122…8405backed Yes | 48c | 35.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3040…55cebacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…4f8ebacked Yes | 46c | 31.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…5ec6backed Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed Yes | 48c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 37c | 29.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…f5e5backed Yes | 46c | 28.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3296backed Yes | 46c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…8edbbacked Yes | 47c | 25.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…fe90backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6b…7e84backed Yes | 46c | 23.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…d168backed Yes | 64c | 22.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…7409backed Yes | 46c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…be5dbacked No | 51c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…d4b3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.